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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stockman_scott who wrote (48495)3/8/2002 9:49:39 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 65232
 
consumer credit increase reminds me of SMU Batra argument

mfg production is far outpacing individual income
the gap is made up by consumer debt and corporate debt

so the entire "recovery" since October is based upon zero-interest car sales, govt spending on security, tax rebates, and a resumption of consumer debt

Batra maintains that the gap eventually runs out of resources

the main things we have going for us is a desire to recover, and real increases in productivity, which is likely to continue for quite a while, given the excess capacity and equipment everywhere
(dont bode well for tech firms, but does for energy firms)
/ jim