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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JD_Canuck who wrote (81437)	3/7/2002 4:51:33 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

jd, the markets, and especially semis, have been up - a lot. lots of rmbs' rise is attributable to that fact. don't confuse a stock going up with improving fundamentals... the inet bubble shoulda taught you at least that much. good trade, though. keep an eye on the stock... sell on any weakness. good luck...

To: JD_Canuck who wrote (81437)	3/7/2002 6:54:52 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi JD_Canuck; Re: "... that doesn't explain the recent price strength either ..." Of course you're right. It doesn't. That is what makes this is a classic shorting opportunity. If stock prices always exactly matched their outlook, we wouldn't be able to make money in the market. Opportunities like this are hard to find. Rambus institutional ownership is down below 18% now. The stock is dominated by mom and pop investors. You can read the comments from those guys here and on the various other threads. From their comments, it is clear that they have not yet conceded that Rambus has become a pure legal play. They really believe that Rambus is about to take over the DRAM market with RDRAM. Shattering that dream will force some of them to get out of the stock. By the way, I should mention that since Samsung has made good money from RDRAM they naturally present estimates showing its future market penetration to be as high as possible. Samsung wants us to use the memory that makes Samsung money. The other memory makers are biased, in varying degrees, the other way. But the company to watch is Intel. Intel got their "donkey" kicked by supporting RDRAM. It was not a pleasant experience, so Intel's roadmaps no longer show new RDRAM chip development. Nor are any such chips rumored. This is the news that hasn't sunk in on the market for Rambus. When it no longer becomes deniable, mom and pop will either sit on their shares or actively start puking them up. In either case, more shares are going to come on to the market from shorters. The thing to watch for short term news is stuff like Bloomberg. The news that Intel is no longer developing RDRAM chipsets hasn't gone out on Bloomberg yet. When it does, there will be a lot of shorters attracted to this stock. Right now, the short interest in Rambus is relatively small and shares are easy to borrow. -- Carl