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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16531)	3/7/2002 6:57:09 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<<a revolution in thought that has been enabled by computers" I would add something on that topic: The revolution has been not been as encompassing as it is possible because of government intervention. Rapid economic change invariably means disruption to sectors and geographic regions bringing about political pressures to alleviate pains of adjustment; there are congenial tendencies in our economic institutions and political processes to slow things down, to seek breathing time, and to retard the pace of structural change through measures that shield disrupted enterprises or industrial sectors from global forces of change. Industrialized countries artificially try to keep their share of world’s wealth by protectionism, non-tariff barriers etc. “The claims of market disruption and domestic injury caused older industrial countries to invoke not only tariffs, but the more restrictive non tariffs barriers of quotas, orderly marketing agreements, voluntary export restriction through unilateral and bilateral policies undertaken outside the GATT. Meier, G.M., U.S. Foreign Economic Policies, (1980), Cited from Duignan, P., Rabushka, A., The United States in the 1980s, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1980.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (16531)	3/7/2002 8:22:04 PM
From: tradermike_1999	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>so you believe we are in a "new economy" unlike any other in history?<< Well, yes and no. Let's do the no part first. There have been two other similar transitions in human history that have had a similar impact to that of the information-driven "new economy": (1) the agricultural revolution, which began with the invention of the plow, and; (2) the industrial revolution, which began in the mid-1700s with the invention of the steam engine and arguably continued well into this century. Now here's the yes part. Though the information revolution will have an impact of similar magnitude on human life as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, it will have different effects. The reason it is difficult to see how profound these changes are going to be is because we are so near to the beginning of the process. Imagine asking a farm laborer in merry old England in, say 1770, his opinion of James Watt's invention. His response would likely be, "say what, that piece of shit, all it's good for is making really bad smells, as far as I can tell. What? Revolutionize the world? Put me out of a job? Move me into a dark, satanic mill, working to the clock and not to the rhythm of the sun and the seasons? No f*^&ing way, man!" Uh, ok. Let's see the agricultural revolution created modern civilization, and we all know how important the industrial revolution is. So you really believe that the computer and the internet are as important as these two events? Is that why you think stock valuations don't matter? BEcause things really are different this time? Unlike the stock peaks in valuation and bear markets in the 1880's, 1920's, late 1960's - this time the technology is so super that regular economic and historical valuation trends in the market no longer matter? Just want to make sure I understand where you are coming from? No need to say that I strongly disagree here and think it is a desperate rationalization to believe in the market no matter what.