Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (11098)	3/7/2002 11:01:55 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

The SPX reached a Coppock Curve low reading of SPX - 38.93 on November 23, 2001. Today the reading has climbed well out of its hole and stands at SPX - 28.39... Most won't realize what hit em on the long side with a two by four until the coppock curve crosses back above 0 and into positive territory as measured by the SPX. Laverne olney has provided excellent data on this on MITA in the archives and maybe this will bring him out of hibernation. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (11098)	3/7/2002 11:06:34 PM
From: Killswitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I had never heard of this before- thanks for posting it

To: J.T. who wrote (11098)	3/7/2002 11:45:38 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 19219

Well, it would be hard to find a method, including random action, that didn't produce strong gains over relatively lengthy test periods, if applied to going long equities post-'87 up to the year 2000. Basically, the Coppock Curve as described works as a very long-term moving average oscillator. If you're content with average market gains from periods following obvious extreme market lows, and you trust that the market will "always" recover, and you trust further that average gains from long-term equity investments will exceed gains from other vehicles or methods, then, sure, buy the big dips. It's basically LTB&H with a bit of conjunctural opportunism - a time-honored method, almost more a philosophy. You don't need a churchgoer's TA or any other mathemagical method to hit upon it.

To: J.T. who wrote (11098)	3/8/2002 12:51:17 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Respond to of 19219

Although Coppock applied his signal only to the Dow, its rationale makes it applicable to all markets. I have applied it successfully to many, the only non-performer being the foreign exchange market. Since 1919 the Coppock technique has given only one false signal in the Dow (1930), and, since 1945, just one in London (1948). Perhaps I'm having difficulty understanding the formula, but I did find one reference that supports my interpretation of what is stated in the article. If I did it right, by my calculation the first recent upturn from below zero in the Dow was at the end of April 2001, where Dow closed at 10735, up 856 from March. It continued a bit higher in May (+177) before starting the incredible slide into September, a 29% draw-down from the May high to the September low. It might not have been that bad without the 9/11 effect, but Dow was in serious decline on 9/10. I'd have to call that false signal. Maybe someone can confirm that April 2001 really was a Dow signal. Dan