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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (2241)	3/8/2002 8:13:46 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

<reasoning on selling BAY to move into MNP and WTC> Mostly I've gone into some cash. I did go big into WTC (@ .65) but via a private placement with the tasty warrants attached. I'm betting Penasquito could be superior to Alamos Dorado or at least an equal, and they have an excellent fall back deposit at San Nicholas if not. Market cap is now about one third of BAY's. Obviously it's a different phase play than BAY. MNP is more leveraged (only a two million market cap) and again a different phase play, and I feel works at 290 POG. I have adjusted and lowered my MNP price target some because of their willingness to underwrite ten cent stock. I bought at 9-10 cents two weeks ago before these announcements so this was not a BAY redeployment. I'm not sure I would recommend selling BAY to buy MNP at 13 now. I do sense however that there may be better value in the junior market for previously worked deposits (versus some of the late stage projects)like Mt. Kare, Salamandra (NGT), Penasquito, Vicuna (TNK), Ntotoroso (MOY), Mampon (BGI), Rio Tabaconas and Mogote (IMR) that showed merit and need finishing work. As far as BAY itself, I think it's entering the tough "reality sets in" phase. First, I'm having some problems with the depressed 4.47 POS and the current 3.35 BAY valuation. I just don't think that quite supports it and just feel the easy money (thanks for your work on that) has been made. BAY is also about to enter the financing, construction and startup phase that is notoriously difficult to execute. I'm just not a big believer in juniors developing (faking it is OK) mines alone as there isn't enough room for error. But that's just my philosophy, and is not to say BAY management can't do it, as they are certainly capable. You many still get the premium buyout, and that would be great and not a surprise. I do question the amount of the premium from here though. You may also get the POS rally, but I'd rather play that by writing some naked puts on silver and not have to worry about the company specific issues I've addressed.