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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (9099)	3/8/2002 2:50:02 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

securitytrader.com

To: Roebear who wrote (9099)	3/8/2002 7:50:57 AM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

On the BBC radio they said the japanese gov was taxing savings and manipulating the stock market to get people to spend and to save the banks bottom line for the end of the month.If you know the game is rigged play it for all its worth. On italian state radion they interviewed a member of the former royal family of Burma(Myamar?) it was stated that two pakastani nuclear scientists gone missing have been given asylum.Burma has also purchased a nuclear reactor,why?

To: Roebear who wrote (9099)	3/8/2002 9:53:02 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Roebear, i am a little bit jaded i suppose, last time i came out with a rant about Japan the Nikkei moved up 1000 points. About the gold contract sale, i may be able to find out more on Monday. Japan goes from one scandal to the next at this point. I would say that in general, not withstanding what you may see in the news, it is completly rudderless. Koizumi has lost its momentum, mainly from a judgement mistake on something unrelated to the economy (sacking the foreign minister), and that gave the opposition a nice break to out all the slime going on in politics between the LDP (Koizumi`s party) and mainly construction companies. There are presently two major scandals going on at the same time and the thing with this sort of dirt digging is that it is all interconnected and more is bound to come up. Read in the paper today that the minister for economic affairs is proposing that the law governing the BOJ be changed so that policy control can be regained at the political level, in effect taking the BOJ `s independence away. More gov meddling in other words. So where does that bring the Nikkei, well, I still find the case for an 8000 level quite plausible. Just announced on the news that GDP is down 1.2%, a result of 3 quarters in a row of contraction, first time in 8 years. In terms of deflation measures, i dont think any gov action can prevent what is meant to happen naturally over the long time. ( I read about half of the link you posted by the way) For the next few months: 1- a lot depends on what happens with the change over of the deposit insurance in 3 weeks from now 2- the course of the US economy over the mid term. I think most people here on this thread are fairly "realistic" and are bracing for some turbulence in the near term. This should shake the Nikkei nicely. . . <g> Now if you are looking at some investments here in Japan, i am not bearish forever... There will be some really good buys , once we reach THE bottom, i just dont think we are there yet. Iso puts a lot of emphasis on each and everybody`s personal style, so i am saying this from my own point of view, which usually involves holding for a couple of years and not trading much. I do some options but i am having a great bit of difficulty with that at the moment. Just no consistency... Anyway, back to the situation here. I dont travel much around Japan at all so i really can only speak for my own little back yard, but as i was driving on a different road home today, a detour i had not taken in a while, i noticed how many new discount shops, new restaurants, and small specialty shops had open in a different part of town. There is a lot of destruction going on for sure, but some new future leaders being born as well. IMHO, the US goes, then it`s every man for himself. I dont think Japan is gonna lead anyone anywhere and take over from the US this time. It`s got too much problems to deal with and it is just started to do that. People look at the time since the bubble burst and think, ok time wise it should go up soon, but time is expandable by way of fiat and mad borrowing. Japan had (had is keyword here) a good credit rating and used all of it and then some . I am not sure i was of any help with this long post of mine, but please feel free to ask away. best to you, Step1 PS Did have time to check on the shorting rules today but will do some more digging on Monday, and should be able to get a clear answer then. I`ll try to confirm the 500k oz sale. I read somewhere a week or so ago (i think it was at Gold Eagle) that the number of contracts traded jumped to 400,000 contracts , the higest since 1992, perhaps that is what you are referring to? s1

To: Roebear who wrote (9099)	3/8/2002 2:04:36 PM
From: tommycanuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi Roebear; What is happening with the weather? Pull your charts out and give me some hope. 38 below C this morning in Central Alberia (Alberta). Usually this is great news for the patch but doesn't seem to be helping the service businesses this year. Companies are racking rigs way earlier than I can remember in the past many number of years. The reduction of budgets, the ongoing movement of the US based producers into Canada and other minor problems such as tightness in pipeline capacity all will add to the sharp rebound coming at us maybe as soon as the fall. The market knows, for the most part, and we continue to hit highs in the oil and gas indexes on the TSE. The Canadian oilfield services business lagging a little but starting to feel better about the prospects down the road. Talking to some of the people involved in the development of the Ladyfern project in NE British Columbia. Coming on stream at 600 million cf/day, with the pipeline capacity to allow it to get to 780 mmcf/day. They were unanimous in their thoughts that declines could easily reach 50% during the first year. Bodes well for the industry once storage is taken down by industrial recovery. Less drilling, pipeline restrictions, increasing declines and economic recovery will set us up for a replay of a year ago not too far down the road IMHO. In the meantime, fix the weather here, or better yet send it east and south. Have a good weekend. Regards TC