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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (33678)	3/8/2002 9:03:54 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

The Futures Responded Well To The Jobs Data So It Must Be Good It seems like in this Alice In Wonderland investment environment it has become clear to the Banksters and Political Leaders that most people don't know much if anything about economics. But they do believe that the market does. Is a particular development good or bad? Just look at the futures and you can tell. So we know have a environment in which the focus is on manipulating the thermometer rather than changing the temperature. This mornings jobs report is a good example. It must be good since the futures rallied on the data. Yes the unemployment rate was down by .1 percent to 5.5%. It should be kept in mind though that the unemployment rate only includes people looking for work. If people stop looking because they felt that their efforts were futile it would also go down. But that is nit-picking. The real tell in the data that all may not be well in Happyland in a little followed piece of data, the average work week. The average work week is a very reliable measure of economic growth, particularly after a period of stagnation. When it appears that a recovery is starting, while employers may sense increased demand, they remain reluctant to add new employees. The solution is simple. They have existing employees work some over time. Once the economic recovery becomes more certain, will employers actually hire new employees. Increases in the work week are one of the most reliable leading indicators of economic recovery. There was no increase in the work week in February (manufacturing jobs did see a .1 hour increase but this was probably more related to the fact that there was a 50,000 reduction in factory jobs, so those remaining had to do more). I think it worthwhile to point out that actual developments in the economy have very little to do with stock prices. So no one should let discussions about the economy influence their investment decisions. <gg> and <ng> I will say that they have raised the bar for today fairly high and either we do break out or we are going to put in one ugly stick.