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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (38972)3/8/2002 11:48:45 AM
From: 16yearcycle  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99280
 
I understand from Yardeni that a spike to 25% after an economic contraction was something he had backtested. Was on an audio replay way back. So a spike to 25% would be what one could expect. And we will get there, imho, but e estimates and the 10 year will dictate. I don't think we could give a very good guess what the model will say when we hit 2250 in a few weeks;>)

If I mean...if.



To: TREND1 who wrote (38972)3/8/2002 12:05:59 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Respond to of 99280
 
Larry Dudash: When we are in the final stages of this rally, and the "dumb" money comes rushing in, valuations are meaningless in the ST. Fed model might indeed by 20% overvalued -- that will become important over the summer when we have (IMHO) a vicious selloff. I do NOT see us revisiting the September 2001 lows, however, as many bears on this thread do.


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