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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (20129)	3/9/2002 8:35:52 AM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196647

Ramsey: The MII forecast for 2002 was quoted in a recent (2/26/02) WW article: ...The MII has forecast that the mainland market will grow by another 55 million new users this year... and a comment on this forecast in the same article: ..."The officially published numbers should be viewed more as a floor under which the MII likely feel embarrassed if they do not hit, rather than the real growth target they have been receiving credit for," [telecommunications analyst at ABN Amro] Mr Locke said... If Unicom holds on to the same share of new subs (37.4%) as last year, they'll add 20.6 million this year, so a chunk of them (probably the low ARPU subs) will have to be added to the existing GSM network, which is therefore rapidly going to get maxed out, making it imperative for Unicom to move users over to the CDMA network. I agree that the recent analyst target of 3-4 million CDMA subs by year end is almost certainly going to be way low, and that Unicom's goal of 7-8 million by year end is more than just "doable". David T.