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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (16673)	3/8/2002 8:26:39 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

If we ever meet, prepare to binge!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (16673)	3/9/2002 1:06:18 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

(c) Collapse of oil due to demand implosion This is the fly in the soup of your plan, Jay. Therein the canker lies. It should have been at the top of your list. The price of oil will remain low and may go substantially lower. Tiny Trinidad will be nothing but a microscopic particle in an elephantine market which will no longer be controlled by the Saudis. Their control has been exercised through unused capacity and the low costs they have in pumping out that capacity. If the Saudis want the price to go down to discipline non-compliant OPEC members, they flood the market with cheap oil. If the need cash, they tighten up until the greedy non-compliant ones exceed their quotas and the Saudis have to again impose discipline by flooding the market with their low-cost excess capacity. The system has worked marvelously for many years--and we all know the result: energy prices have been low. Factor in the Caspian oil which the Russians will be soon exporting, and the possibility that the Saudi excess capacity will no longer be able to control prices and production becomes a very real one. We will probably see a fragmented oil market in which the Middle Easterners and the Russians will be tripping over themselves to sell oil. The result will be low energy prices for the foreseeable future. You might want to read the latest Foreign Affairs which has an absolutely brilliant article on the issue. Tiny Trinidad will not get soaked with oil wealth unless, of course, its reserves are in the same league as Brunei's.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (16673)	3/11/2002 9:01:18 PM
From: pezz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<Now to pezz’s taunt on gold. >> Opps, When I wrote that I thought GOLD had been goin up and you were havin fun.....I guess I don't follow it too closely. Ahh the watch....You have too much money Jay...That can be the only reason to buy sucha thing... Don't understand the wisdom of carrying the time around on ones wrist myself....( let alone a ton 'O money ) Watches...never had one.... But I did just get a deal onna $600 fly rod for only $750....long story but it'wuz for a good cause ..It's a 8' 6" Winston 4wt with a dark green finish ,a real beauty...Sure to get the babes. <<The gods are with me, as the Yen is going up! >>.....Himmmmm Where have I heard that one before ? <<the solution has elements of natural industrial resources, without resorting to Aztec monetary gold, simultaneously arbitraging interest rates, knowledge gap, temperature, private relationships, policy access, and aggregate outlook differences.>> Well I'm sure ya know what you are doin but as a wise old chess player once told me "never be too smart". Personally I like to buy stocks and hav'em go up.... Speakin of stocks (that have yet to go up ) I bought some FNIS today @ 16.05 and added to my PVSW @ 3.07 bringing average price to 3.50. <<There are always possible fatal catches, some spotted too late:>> That wisdom is often lost on many on these boards... Mq once told me that the chances of him being right ( on some outrageously bullish concept )were 99.9999% ....or sumtin like that. The wise investor prepares for the possibility that he/she could be wrong....( I never said that I wuz wise but i do know that I could be wrong ) <<my anti-hero Greenspudkaput >> Now,now be nice. a) knowing that there is a bubble and knowing when it will burst are two different things b)He has said many times that it is not the FED's job to use policy to influence the stock market. c) speculators and innocents are on their own....Besides when greed overcomes fear no one is innocent. d) Well so far he has been proven correct... e) This is bad? <<What do you think? We do not need to disagree,>> Well thems pretty strong sentiments.I can't agree with'em but I don't make long term predictions cause anything can happen. Short term minus any negative news on the economy or another 9/11 I think that the market is inna Bull faze. But that's just the opinion ofa "steak sandwich" <<The solution leading to salvation is so simple: >> May be but solutions are rarely simple until after the fact <<'Tout ou rein', all or nothing, can be improved >> But,but "all or nothing" is so much more exciting!...no?