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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (18526)	3/8/2002 10:03:43 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

ummmm, what is a MOABO?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (18526)	3/8/2002 10:05:15 PM
From: EepOpp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23786

so the million dollar question is when the lows will be retested. What's your best guess? We're practically having a melt-up. The Bears are almost in disbelief. Maybe when they start becoming slightly bullish is when the downtrend begins.

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (18526)	3/10/2002 12:02:31 AM
From: geode00	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

There is something here that no one ever mentions, but Brinker talked about it from time to time. (I haven't listened to him in a while, but I don't think that he has called a MOABO yet -g-) That is - we can have a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. What the parameters of this phenomenon would be, I don't know. However, I feel certain that we would, at least, retest the lows, if not make new lows. Any thoughts? Bob has retreated from the term MOABO and is using the idea of returning to a fully invested position (in equities) sometime this year. He is using the 1966 - 1982 secular bear market as a blueprint for a 10-20 year secular bear that started with a cyclical bear in Q1 2000. During that time, there were several 1-3 year bear markets of 20-25% or more (depending on which indices you're looking at). He is attempting (follow at your own peril) to call the buy/sell of these cyclical bulls. Currently his longterm model hasn't turned green yet as valuations are too high (mid to high 20s going forward on the S&P). Valuations are what he thinks will cause a secular bear. He thinks this is a snapback rally off the September lows. Anyway, that's to the best of my understanding and Bob is nothing if not contradictory and confusing. More on Bob and this idea: suite101.com