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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmanvegas who wrote (48559)	3/9/2002 12:10:16 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

jman: Nice to hear from you... I remain BULLish for now...BUT, I'll continue to use limits to protect profits...The NAZ has some powerful momentum and I expect it to move much higher in the month of March (unless there's some most unfortunate corporate announcement or another terrorist attack). I prefer to see the glass as half-full...=) Enjoy the weekend. regards, -Scott

To: jmanvegas who wrote (48559)	3/9/2002 6:44:13 AM
From: Clappy	Respond to of 65232

Although I share your caution as to the length of this rally, someone recently pointed me to this link of additional info about the COT's. 321gold.com What do the Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports tell us? A common misconception is that the commercial traders in the futures markets (typically, those who use the futures markets to hedge their dealings in the cash markets) are usually right and, therefore, that the speculators are usually wrong. This misconception leads to the incorrect conclusion that the traders' commitments are bullish for a commodity when the commercials are net-long and bearish when the commercials are net-short. As we've explained on many occasions in the past, the commercials tend to be right at important turning points and tend to be wrong the remainder of the time. Speculators, on the other hand, usually follow the price trend and therefore tend to be right as long as the trend remains intact, but will be wrong when a trend change occurs. Those who claim that the commercials are usually right simply because they tend to be on the right side of the market when a trend change eventually occurs are effectively making the argument that a downward trend is bullish because it will eventually be followed by an upward trend (or that an upward trend is bearish because it will eventually be followed by a downward trend). <snip>

To: jmanvegas who wrote (48559)	3/9/2002 2:19:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

JMan, you old dog I sniff out your infrequent and lucid posts for their wisdom doing ok, still trying to get out of the Pittsburgh ghetto and back to Boston work is ok, making good coin, not much challenge in my firm's stat world hoping to land a job with a shift to biopharma world one of most exclusive, elitist, protective, conservative, difficult sectors to crack but I have usually been good at finding cracks (take that any of three ways) I sent you an email last October, no reply you big goomba... no big deal biotech will soon emerge within this next tough expansion as for complacency, absolutely in synch with my thoughts it shows up with a near zero risk premium for crude oil altho that may be slowing changing in recent weeks now that USForces seem to be circling wagons with tough talk about going after Sodomy it shows up in total dismissal of future costs from attacks on American homelands, despite the disparity between money spent and time wasted in security, and the effectiveness of such efforts I regard the security response as "an inefficiency tax" with extremely small benefit did you know there is a link between Nazis and Sodomy Hussein, and Arafat??? grand mufti from Iraq was in charge of "cleansing" in Bosnia during WW2 in special German Waffer brigade mufti was protected by Egypt, which gave him asylum during Nuremberg Trials his nephew is Arafat his adopted son is Sodomy mufti's famous quote: "God regrets making Jews, Persians, and flies" his legacy lives mufti was a religious leader, and Brits and French let him go yes, complacency is absurd VP = Cheney SecyState = Powell SecyDefense = Rumsfeld 50% is low figure for naming all three, way low I doubt 20% of Americans could name all three I doubt 5% of Americans could name all three, plus their own two Senators most citizens are totally blind to the dangers outside our borders last week I played NostraSeamus with fun and spouted off dozens of visions on the future I expect one vicious serious attack on our soil per year these guys are entrenched within the baseboard scumcracks of NorthAmerica and Europe they will show their faces and simple clever deviousness from time to time talk about asymmetric results ?!?!? Americans have a wonderful optimistic spirit but it should never apply to the Moslem World their millenium-long failure has come to a climax I am enjoying and benefiting from Bernard Lewis's book on Islam unsure of title, "What Went Wrong?" I think it is he claims at the turn of the 20th century the central question in Islam world was WHAT CAN WE DO BETTER TO CATCH UP TO THE WEST ??? now at the turn of the 21st century the question has become WHO DID THIS TO US ??? a near absolute abdication of responsibility I wont get into the 20 failed specifics but medieval education system is a good start, and first 5 years of life learning from downtrodden ignorant women is a good end it is far too difficult to admit a failure of 1000 years socially, intellectually, politically, economically a total and complete failure my father just heard an interesting story a group of highbrows gathered in 1980 when the Shah of Iran was overthrown and went into exile this group of diplomatic, academic, and political folks relished the prospect of Iran enjoying the sunlight of democracy and fresh breeze of capitalism a little man interrupted them and their joyous relish: "NO, YOU ARE MISTAKEN... IRAN WILL ENTER A PAINFUL THEOCRACY NEXT... WITH LOSS OF PERSONAL FREEDOM, LOSS OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, INCREASED VIOLENCE, AND HEIGHTENED WORLD TENSION WITH ISLAM" the little man was Princeton's Bernard Lewis he was right Lewis in his book makes a big point whenever Islam is threatened, IT GOES BACKWARDS that is why the Islamic world fast approaches the stone age take it easy, JMan thanks for thinking of me every day I find beauty in the world, but not without sadness and strife let us relish in the former, and work to end the latter / Jim