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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (39324)	3/9/2002 4:26:54 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99280

Read Larry Kudlow having an V-recovery orgasm:) <<BYE-BYE, RECESSION By LAWRENCE KUDLOW March 8, 2002 -- A SPATE of new economic data that has economic recovery written all over it could well remove a key election-year issue from Democrats running for the Senate and House in November. Rumor has it that when the judges at the National Bureau of Economic Research decided last fall that the U.S.'s tenth recession in the past 50 years started in March 2001, they used Arthur Andersen to audit the books. Just kidding, of course, although some Bush administration officials are now questioning whether the recession happened at all. More and more, today's recovery cycle looks to be V-shaped - quick down and quick up - with a sizable stock-market bounce yet to come. And if a V-shaped recovery turns out to be the case, then even small budget deficits could turn into surpluses, removing yet another issue from the Democrats' rather thin arsenal of election-year weapons. Overall, this looks to be the shortest and mildest recession on record. In fact, while private-sector gross domestic product - which does not include government spending - has declined in each of the past three quarters, real GDP actually increased 1.2 percent in calendar year 2001. The largest chunk of the economy, consumer spending, never dipped at all. And though it could still rise a bit in the months ahead, the current 5.6 percent unemployment rate is certainly the lowest jobless pace in any modern recession. Over the past two decades, most economic sectors have been deregulated. Tax rates on balance have come down significantly and inflation has been vanquished. Interest rates are at 40-year lows. And with only a few exceptions, U.S. trade has been liberated, spawning intense business competition that has made the vast majority of U.S. industries more efficient and productive. So, for those pessimists who say that the two-year stock-market decline signals the end of U.S. prosperity, it's time to think again. (Larry the day you get me to think again on anything you say i ask that someone please shoot me and put me out my misery as senile dementia must be upon me--max) Since the end of inflationary recession - or stagflation - in 1982, the U.S. economic machine has created over 40 million new jobs and nearly $30 trillion of household wealth. More, out of a total 76 quarters in the past 19 years, only 5 quarters (or 6.6 percent) have registered declines. That means the economy has been growing 93 percent of the time. Even at the bottom of this recession, 94 percent of the work force was employed. For those analysts who blame the recession on the so-called dot-com bubble - or over-investment on Internet companies - it's worth noting that capital expenditures in both the new and old economies fell by roughly the same 11 percent this recession. At the peak of the last recovery cycle technology spending contributed about one-third to economic growth. Look for it to contribute as much or more in the new recovery. Now, if you really want to know the biggest reason for the stock-market-led business recession that came to an end last October, look no farther than the Federal Reserve. The central bank's excessively tight policy in 2000 launched a brief deflationary recession the following year. Fortunately, the Fed has since loosened up, replenishing the liquidity base of the economy and putting us back into growth mode. Since taking the reins last year, the Bush administration has pursued a free-market agenda of lower tax rates and reduced regulatory burdens for retirement, health care, energy, anti-trust and telecommunications. And while steel-industry protection remains a bad idea, the administration's additional trade-opening measures will also promote growth. Domestic prices are stable and the dollar is sound. Once again, economic freedom has proven the gloomy naysayers completely wrong. Get set, America. We're headed for a third consecutive decade of prosperity. And this could set the stage for a surprisingly strong Republican showing in this year's mid-term elections.>> end article--- mind you Larry took such a licking the past 2 years he is hiring himself out to anyone that will let him speak or write to get him out from under.

To: mishedlo who wrote (39324)	3/9/2002 8:01:26 AM
From: limtex	Respond to of 99280

Mish This (late?) in the rally and people want more more more. Goodness how foolish of them. Maybe there should be a quote on how many shares you can buy! Mind you Mish that would be a great line to include in a novel "Please Sir, can I have more?" Ever though of taking up novel writing. And late inthe rally. Last week it was "what rally?" now it is "late in the rally". Goodness one can get confused around here. Well late yes late but what about, dare I mention it, the Recovery. Any effect on things or is it only the P/C ratio that is the really important all powerful influence on things now that the VIX seems to be pissed of and not co-operating. I mean what if the GDP numbers are good any chance that the market might sort of well, have the guts to ignore the P/C ration and say:- "Screw the P/C ratio we're interested in the economy growing?" Well just a thought. Of course the poor old consumer might just keel over now and business might just fade away giving rise to the now celebrated prediction of the June Massacre. Best, L