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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2217)	3/9/2002 12:25:58 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95936

RtS, Thanks for posting all the data. It was quite a week, actually as the data shows, quite a 6 day period. IMO, the start of the upswing beginning a week ago yesterday was very similar to the upswing starting on 9 October 1998. In both cases "the market" all of a sudden believes that the bad times are behind us and the good times are beginning to roll, and nobody wants to be left behind. <<The last six sessions have been amazing. I can't believe how much money I did not make because I was not fully invested on the long side. Cudos to those who have been!>> Ditto for me as well - it just proves once again how quickly the market can change. I had been very aware of the "October 1998" syndrome and was bound and determined I would be ready for it, but it went right by me like a "speeding bullet". There will be more increases in the future, but none as short and sweet as the last 6 days. 20 out of the 29 stocks in the group were up 20 percent or more during the last 6 trading days. It doesn't get any better!<gg> Unlike October 1998, the valuations of the group today started from a much higher base, which IMO will limit the percentage increase of most stocks compared to the prior period. <<Don what do you think on the chances of a pullback now? >> To answer your question, I was reading Briefing.com this morning and saw the comments by Robert Walberg, which seemed to hit home for me. <<Two weeks ago, the Nasdaq Composite was down 13% year-to-date, and investors were fearing a repeat of last year... Fast forward to today... After surging by 233 points (127 of which came this week), or nearly 14%, the index begins the week down 21 points on the year, or a mere 1%. The sector's reversal of fortunes is due to a spate of stronger than expected economic reports, which finally convinced investors that the economy has indeed turned the corner -- a claim Briefing.com has been making on this page for weeks... With one report after the other showing strength, investors began to aggressively rotate out of the defensive groups such as health care, gold, food, beverage and drug into later stage recovery sectors such as technology. Tech sector's beleaguered state (in light of recent accounting/debt concerns) made it that much more attractive to late-comers and bargain hunters... Wireless, Networking/Telecom Equipment and Internet Software/Services stocks -- among the biggest losers prior to the current run -- paced last week's rebound... The chip sector also continued to outperform, with the bellwether Philadelphia Semiconductor (SOX) index breaking above stubborn resistance at 600, and closing the week at 637.94, up 12.5%. The sector has now come a long way in a relatively short period of time... On the one hand, that's a show of strength and suggests additional upticks are in store... On the other hand, given how far and how fast the sector has travelled, a little backing and filling has to be expected... Just don't expect another big pullback any time soon. There are some pundits that will argue that the sector has once again moved too far ahead of its fundamentals, and that less than stellar Q1 preannouncement/earnings numbers will result in another sizable correction... WRONG! The big difference this time around is that the economic outlook is no longer in question... No less an authority than Greenspan himself noted last week that the recovery is "already well under way." Consequently, it's no longer a question of "if" tech earnings will rebound, but "when." And with the data showing surprising strength, Briefing.com expecting investors to bet on sooner rather than later... In other words, one side benefit of the strong economic data is that it insulates the sector/market from disappointing Q1 earnings numbers because it shifts the focus to the (now bright) future. We're not saying that stocks won't pullback on disappointing earnings news - they might and probably will... However, traders will now view such pullbacks as good intermediate- to long-term buying opportunities - making any such retreats short and shallow.>>

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2217)	3/9/2002 2:35:10 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95936

RtS, great week for us semi-nerds I hope. Also good you didn't commit to your ESST short. FYI, OAKT which is somewhat similar historically also enjoyed a steady runup in its "turf" alone (CD-ROM/CD-RW/DVD control chips) even while competition was increasing. Most of all because the sector itself got bigger and consequently was able to support more players and support it profitably.. Looking really hard at GGNS. Like it alot. When some of my current holdings are ripe for a makeover I probably will move it into GGNS.. rgrds CROSSY