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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (39426)	3/9/2002 3:01:17 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi Dale, I didn't predict anything in relation to any "channel", but I posted here many times that I guessed that 1650ish would offer good support and that on any rebound of any strength, the NASDAQ runs at least for its 50 dEMA, which this time was about 1850. 1650ish represents strong support for the following reasons: 1. It was the low last April 2. It was the 50 dEMA in Oct and represented resistance during the Oct - Dec rally. NASDAQ 1930ish is resistance now cuz it was a mild support area in January and is near the NASDAQ's 200 dEMA. siliconinvestor.com We all know that big money pushes these stocks up and down beyond reason and our control, but here are the basic facts: 1. The economy is stabilizing in a nice slow growth zone. Despite the propaganda, there was a recession, just not the kind defined by traditional measures. Most business have adjusted to the new economic reality, but there are still plenty that need to go under. The consumer will probably slow down a little, which we all know, since Greenspans rate cuts and Fed Gov't policies "stuffed the channel" consumer wise to buy time for businesses to get their act together. 2. Having said that, the economy ain't totally out of the woods yet. One of these days, who knows when, Japan will announce that "The Emperor Has No Clothes". That will really suck. 3. Stock market valuations are too high. The question is, will people hold and wait for earnings to catch up 2 - 3 years from now or sell ? I don't really think 20% overvalued is all that bad. Especially with low rates and decent unemployment. When the NASDAQ was 200% overvalued .... now THAT was bad, lol. There really isn't much else to it. Of course, none of this will help you make a nickel trading stocks, lol. Chris