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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2220)	3/9/2002 2:40:01 PM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95936

Don & all threadsters, I have a question on one of the semi-subsegements.. Power Semiconductors .. to be specific. Do you have any feeling how the entire group "power semis" should be positioned realtive to the whole semi cycle ? Are they leaders, laggards or about average ? I could think they should be somewhat tied to the general cyclicity of industrial & equipment goods because every machine and appliance needs a power supply. As the uses and machines get more sophisticated, new demands are put on power supply with regard to power conservation, cleanliness, avoidance of brown-and blackouts, realibility and so on. I'm thinking it should really pay to research this group even more. A subgroup of those power semis should be tied to the consumption cycle of electrical power USE (!) and GENERATION. Use, because I could think of "distributed" self provisioned power aggregates once power demand perks up again and California's grid will experience its next stress test under full load conditions.. any insights welcome, TIA, CROSSY

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2220)	3/9/2002 11:36:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95936

Here is an article I saw that was interesting to me. I'll post it for general interest. Highlights are mine: cbs.marketwatch.com Getting out of cash How to put more assets in play in light of recovery By Kristen Gerencher, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 6:38 PM ET March 8, 2002 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- If you've parked a lot of your investment money in a savings account or money market fund over the last 18 months, prepare to shift into drive. The nation's index of leading economic indicators -- which tracks such data as building permits, stock prices and jobless claims - recently rose for the fourth straight month, suggesting a recovery is well underway. A series of economic reports issued since then support that prognosis. To be sure, Americans are sitting on a ton of cash. Last year, they poured $483.5 billion into money market funds, the largest one-year jump recorded by fund tracker ImoneyNet.com. At the same time, they're getting less for their safe havens than ever before -- just 1.4 percent on the average 7-day simple return. Whether you think the rebound is now at hand, three months away or even six months hence, it's time to consider your options for getting off the sidelines, financial planners said. Among the strategies highest on the recommended list is dollar-cost averaging, or investing a set amount of money every month in stocks, said Lynn Ballou, a certified financial planner in Lafayette, Calif. "The very best thing to do is to dollar-cost average your way back into the market, and you do it on the dip days," Ballou said. "On those days when there's a little panic-selling, if you have a little cash, what a great buying opportunity that presents for you." Those who are more bullish may want to accelerate their systematic purchases over a six-month period rather than stretching it out over the year, she said. What's more, investors who can afford to bypass the measured approach on the search for long-term gain should consider putting all their money back into play, said Ginita Wall, a certified financial planner and accountant in San Diego. "For the people who have the lump sums to invest, I'd say this is an ideal time to bite the bullet and get in," Wall said. Equities: Small-cap has it After two back-to-back years of bruising losses in the overall market, stocks are the place to go, and for many people stock mutual funds are the best choice, advisors said. Historically, shares of small and mid-cap companies are first to make a comeback. "You might want to overweight your investment now at the front end of dollar-cost averaging in that sector and underweight large-cap U.S. and international (stocks,)" Ballou said. "A few months from now, you would flip flop the equation and start to overweight those sectors and be under-weighting small and mid-cap because you already have enough in there." Investors who want to charge ahead should consider holding foreign and emerging market equities as well, as long as they "can stand to not just read about Argentina, but also own Argentina," said Wall, herself loading up on international stocks in her Simplified Employee Pension fund. "At some point in the next year, international will start to recover and I want to be there for the beginning of it." While not as attractive as last year, foreign equities such as those in Vanguard's Emerging Market Index Fund still offer decent prospects for returns and diversification, said Stephen Barnes, a certified financial planner in Phoenix, Ariz. "Even more so than small caps, they're selling cheap relative to the kind of valuation we think those companies can generate," Barnes said. "The problem is catching the right moment for that." A more aggressive investor also might look at transportation and cyclical issues in a rebound, while the more conservative should look to cash in on rising interest rates, he said. "Precious metals and gold mining companies might do well in an inflationary environment."