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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmanvegas who wrote (48569)	3/10/2002 8:45:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 65232

JManVagary: views on natural resources, per favor thanks for the quick reply... you outdo yourself this late autumn, I thought the surest short was chipstocks and even more so was their chip equip makers but no no, they run and continue to run this is the most insane part of the tech folly parade imo not imho, since not the least bit humble on this one I think MicronTech (MU) will dive 50% soon Asia will continue to shatter pricing for chips very little new equipment for chip mfg will be needed for some time Novellus is probably the Cadillac of the group while ApplMaterials is the biggest these guys are gonna run right over the cliff let's see what happens to them by midsummer's nightmare as for biotechs, I love their concepts, and several stocks I aint no expert here as far as I can see, 6-8 firms are pursuing HIV vaccines I thought VAXGen was the primary, but now not sure a job lead with Rosirio last week went dry they have vaccines for herpes and HIV in the pipe 6-10 biotechs will change the world this decade CAN WE IDENTIFY THEM BEFOREHAND ??? I wish I were more adept and knowledgable just knowing simple science in diversity dont help wanted to cover my favorite sector(s) here to you if you have read my missives lately, you read of commodities with the Fed now PUBLICLY TALKING ABOUT WANTING "SOME" INFLATION, we are gonna see some hellfire inflation in a couple years gold and silver smell this out very effectively as precursor signals add in currency turmoil that is gathering speed sprinkle in a trainwreck in Japanese banking and toss in failed South American debt for spice and you get a strong foundation for gold and silver but I am not by nature a "gold bug" in the last 10 years, platinum has greatly outpaced gold palladium and the rest of the platgroup, ditto gold will be catching up soon, I honestly believe currency troubles, growing stock distrust, failed economies all will contribute to a strong decade long bull in precious metals do you have an opinion on this ??? I would love to hear it I read from independent sources of real storm clouds forming over mining firms with outsized short positions and central bankers over end of road for gold carry trade all the while the fundamentals of supply/demand are not in the "short" favor and all the while inflation is awaiting like flying condors when GreenFarce openly speaks longingly for the good ole inflation days, you knows, you knows, inflation is right around the corner we overshot on the deflation side in 2000, 2001, 2002 by the end of 2002, we will see some evidence of inflation I believe it will show its face exactly where the GreenFart does NOT want to see it: in FOOD and ENERGY we have a drought all thru not only the Midwest, but the Prairies and New England food prices will be showing higher this summer we will have natural gas shortages soon, and thanks to our renewed attack on Sodomy, shortages on oil soon but North American sources are there for the development when food, energy, and continued labor & health costs are registered higher in late 2002 and early 2003, WATCH GOLD AND SILVER I expect silver to rise 10-20 fold to $50-100 per oz why rise faster than gold? because of industrial uses silver is the world's best conductor, as seen in recent hightemp superconductor applications here is a key fact I have learned US Commodity law forbids mining firms to sell gold, silver, copper, etc more than 12 months forward the average for gold is now 2.5 years the avg for silver is about the same so when inflation shows up, or currency turmoil becomes unbearably unprofitable, or as the next economy fails (e.g. Brazil), gold will resume its northward course AND GOLD AND SILVER MINING FIRMS WILL BE BUYING BACK FUTURES CONTRACTS I dont really expect central banks will be replenishing reserves also but they will surely cease & desist on cozy gold carry trade collusion gold lease rates have risen, and gold is uptrending now I would love to hear your views on inflation and commodities generally since my view is that steady strong pricing power will be seen in commodities alone in the next few years other sectors will pale in pricing power, esp tech and among tech groups, chips will fare worst in pricing power I havent touched on oil & gas, since they are nobrainer winners stay out of the sun, my good man / Jim