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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (9185)	3/10/2002 12:57:52 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

<in a few months you'll be seeing the bullish arguments for the secular bull market in NG being trotted out with enthusiasm by the financial media> Ain't that the truth, and then it will be time to sell, although I think they may be slow with their pronouncements this time. Give em about six months instead to call it a bull market? The move could be pretty powerful in the meantime and is just going to rubble in like a Kansas storm in summertime. I'm confident enough to have added to my big Dec/Jan NG producer bet with MRO on Friday. Personally, I think MRO will be merged at a big premium by year end. I'm wondering about the OSX though. If I had to hazard a guess I'd say it lags relative to producers, especially NG weighted producers. IMO this rally is more supply driven than demand driven and I think the indicator to key on will be the rig counts, which dropped again on Friday. biz.yahoo.com I'm not so sure producers will rush out to start up drilling that quickly as they are tired of hearing footsteps behind them on these mini-cycles. As a result we could clear $3 or even $3.25 spot NG and the drilling activity could still stay slumped below 800. As a result the big "surprise" is that we could be out of gas by the end of next winter and NOBODY is looking at that now. If rig count shot quickly back up over 900, that would be the signal to start selling into the rally. At a thousand I'd be out altogether. I don't expect that to happen for the duration of this year however.