<font color=blue>The Nasdaq and the TSE300 charts.
The Nasdaq Composite
On the Daily,
price is right at resistance. The next resistance that I see is at 2000.
With the ADX falling the Stochastic was signalling a Sell on Thursday. It changed its mind on Friday. That's hard to trade.
If the ADX starts rising, with the MACD looking bullish, and the Chaikin Money Flow having just gone positive, the chart suggests to me this could have a good, bullish rally.
That is, if you can trust a chart that just reversed itself a day ago, for no apparent reason, or perhaps for Fundamental reasons that weren't built into the Technical Analysis. Wouldn't want that to happen too often.
Worth watching. Based on the chart, I put the bias, slightly to the rally side.
On the Weekly,
the December 31st high, 2060, looks like resistance.
With ADX falling, again, the Stochastic is the one to watch, and it looks quite bullish, just coming up out of the oversold zone.
MACD looked like it was ready to drop, and the ADX looked like it was ready to rise, a week ago. That would have been bearish. So, once again, the signals have reversed.
Can it be trusted? I don't know.
On the face of it, at this moment, the chart looks bullish.
Based on the Nasdaq Daily and Weekly, I may watch for a few tech positions to enter, this week.
the TSE300
On the Daily,
the rally looks like it's getting a little long-in-the-tooth, to me, however the ADX is rising and the MACD momentum lines are rising.
Two things about that.
1st. The MACD histogram has gone flat to failing, that's a warning sign, sometimes. It often means, the next move is down.
2nd. If the Stochastic was just coming up from the oversold zone, I'd be more comfortable with an extended rally, from here, but with Stochastic up in the overbought zone and turning down, it's a signal to be cautious.
If you look back at the mid-November to mid-December period, the flattening MACD histogram and the snaking, overbought Stochastic, meant nothing to the price. It just kept rallying.
So, these are warning signals to be cautious. They aren't infallible. As far as I know, no one has yet found a set of infallible signals, and if anyone ever does, I somehow doubt they'll be sharing them.
On the Weekly,
a fairly fresh Buy Signal on another abrupt reversal.
It's kind of like a theme isn't it.
It looks quite bullish, this week, but I don't trust anything that reverses like that. I'll be giving it some time here.
That's it.
These abrupt swings in a number of charts have made the market even harder to trade, IMO.
In mid-December, on this thread and everywhere you looked on SI, there were those amongst us (including me) who thought gold was poised to soar, according to our charts, and then it abruptly reversed. That particular reversal was unreliable. Gold positions, taken then, have had better than 50% gains, since then. The overall trends represented in the charts, prior to whatever made them reverse for those last days of December, eventually were validated.
There's a real risk that anyone who doesn't get on this band wagon soon, will miss the early stages of this rally.
As I see it, the risk that this abrupt reversal won't hold, currently outweighs the risk of missing the rally.
If we are truly out of the recession and entering the good times again, there will be time to get on board.
Cush |
