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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jayhawk969 who wrote (9183)	3/10/2002 4:27:06 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Respond to of 9719

The disasters in biotech investing in the first Q has shown no favoritism as came be seen by some pretty savvy biotech investors having a horrible record(including myself and not even being a savvy investor in the first place)...http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=52126 JD, as for our BTRN...one can only hope the release of Phase II data from MEDI within the next 30 days and the start of new PHase II indications for two new trials, will give us a lift so that the secondary offering can be concluded on better terms. One thing positive I noticed this past week was the large blocks traded and the upward movement of the stock. There were numerous large blocks..saw some in the 30,000 range. For sure my fingers are crossed for the coming week.

To: jayhawk969 who wrote (9183)	3/10/2002 5:09:25 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

<<and NBIX has 2/3 of its valuation riding on insomnia.>> VD tread isn’t my favorite place for comments, because in many cases it only scratches the surface of the problems. Based on current price NBIX MC of $1.1 B (if reduced by cash) is actually $800M. So, what you said is that 34060 current market value is $550 M and rest of technology is $250M. I will agree that many new NBIX investors were triggered by insomnia drug promises. Based on current data I am giving them +80% chance for transient insomnia and MOTN label, with drug market potential (my projected sale) for this two indication at $300 M for ‘06. This does not include chronic insomnia market. Multiple by 8-10 X sale is $2.4-3.0B market value for 34060. Because chances for this two indication are very high, I see very low risk for current $550 market value. However, that all other NBIX technologies and programs are worth only $250M is very big mistake. I will not go in detail for each program and how much is worth to NBIX at its partners. It is (conservative) more that $500M in my books. Bottom line, labeling NBIX in the same risk group with BTRN (regardless what is concern or issue) is wrong, imo. Miljenko