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To: sun-tzu who wrote (33877)	3/10/2002 5:30:47 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

you keep saying that, over and over. firstly, you are rapid trading dude. commenting on position trading/holding as one and the same has little merit. because the approaches aren't the same. you often apologize for a certain holier than thou that has lately creeped into your rhetoric. i'm afraid you appear more and more dogmatic and lecture on positional approaches when you yourself admit over and over and over again that fundamentals have no place in your market view. well, then, you have no place from which to comment on position. sorry, but i find this latest bout of dogma from you somewhat annoying. <g> and it makes your sometimes worthy trading calls look rather silly in the larger picture. I think you should stick to what you know best. and you do not know fundamentals. period. <g> happy trading. J

To: sun-tzu who wrote (33877)	3/10/2002 7:25:31 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

<sure, but why people were trashing me for going long AMZN at 10-11 i'll never know. what more did they want? they still are probably insisting it MUST go BK.> If you are certain it is going BK, then short and hold is an acceptable strategy. However, it requires a gulp delta-hedged approach, which is what makes shorting such a pain in the a$$ to begin with. <as for holding foreign currency, i don't get it. what's the expected return there? why not just buy TIPS and be happy with the guaranteed income. instead, the dollar remains strong and you're giving yourself agita.> Again, I'm not saying hold foreign currency. But, does it make sense to hold a US bond paying 5%/year when the currency is being diluted at a rate of 20%/year? I am saying buy foreign bonds in the native currency. Get the 5% coupon, in a currency that means something, not our confetti greenbacks. I guess it all depends upon what you want to do with the money, too. Do you trust the feds to actually pay up on the real inflation? Have they adequately reflected the real decrease in purchasing power this cycle? I just want a decent return in a stable currency - and the dollar is ripe for a substantial slide based on purchasing power but more importantly capital flows. < it's just that a couple things you said i felt were classic, and easily correctable, bear mistakes. > A sincere thank you for your advice. BC

To: sun-tzu who wrote (33877)	3/10/2002 11:10:23 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 209892

As my name seems to have been used in vain <g> in a number of posts here today, I thought I would briefly chime in on this discussion (AA -- love your thread and lurk here all the time but don't post as I'm not a "trader"; please forgive this intrusion) I want to dis-agree very strongly with one thing that Bobcor has said in this discussion, which is that buying and holding in a bull market and shorting and holding in a bear market are mirror images of each other. Its just not true (and this is coming from a guy whose portfolio is largely short and hold right now). The potentials for gains are NOT mirrors (infinite vs. 100%) nor are the taxes (39% top marginal plus state and local for short gains vs. 15% long-term cap gains). The PHILISOPHIES (i.e. buy undervalued securities; short overvalued securities) ARE mirrors, but don't confuse the REASON for making the investment with the ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS of it. Which does not mean that one should not short and hold; as most who know me understand I am (right now) primarily a short and hold "investor" (with some of my shorts literally lasting in excess of two years). However, I cannot stress enough that if one is going to take this approach, LIQUIDITY is paramount. It is all well and good to be correct about the direction from A to Z, BUT one has to pass through all of B, C, D, ....etc to get there. I agree with most on the CFZ and its sister thread that we are in a long-term, grinding bear market. However, my desire is not so much to profit from the bear market, but to SURVIVE with my capital intact. Great fortunes are (generally) NOT made during bear markets; great fortunes are made by being LIQUID at the BOTTOM of the bear and thus being in a position to BUY the great values that are available (think Buffet in 1974; Sam Zell in the throes of the real estate crisis; Richard Rainwater w/ Disney). Remember that ALL clowns must be destroyed, and that includes us short clowns as well; bottoms of bear markets are marked by NOBODY having capital left to put to work. Life is long (it is in fact NOT short) and patience and discipline will be rewarded. Above all else, the goal in the bear market should be to get to the next bull with significant capital availability. fwiw, my positioning is more or less as described by Sun. the vast majority of my net worth (85% or so) is in US gov't securities, divided roughly equally between TIPS and STRIPS, laddered with a duration of +/- 7 1/2 years. my equity account is +/- 85% short and 15% long (so 70% net short); I will on OCCASION use some leverage in my equity account (up to 20%) as that leverage in the overall scheme of my whole portfolio is small. I have 72 short positions and 7 longs today; about 40 of these positions were initiated over 1 year ago and no more than 15 have been initiated in the last 3-4 months. I do not own any physical or virtual (stocks) gold, and have not really figured how to play in foreign currency, though I would like to (some on CFZ have suggested TGG as a good closed-end fund that owns unhedged Euro bonds). Tippet is wrong in his comment that being "right on a FA basis is worthless"; my real estate agent and tax accountant would beg to dis-agree <g>. That said, as noted above you actually have to live to see the day that you're right, so remember to keep position sizes small and keep tons of back-up liquidity. fwiw, many see Sun-Tzu, since he tends to be short-term in nature in his calls and trades, as radically different from "short-and-hold", "position" investors like me. Actually, Sun and I are more similar than you know. By being short-term, spreading his money, and cutting and running (including quickly taking losses on losing trades), Sun is living by the same principals as I do -- stay liquid and live to fight another day. I would also echo Sun's comments about family and friends; money cannot buy the joy of holding your wife's round belly and talking to your unborn daughter. As you contemplate the current investment environment, remember the words of Ronald Reagan -- "don't just do something, stand there". There will be a day, and it may very well be 10-20 years from now, when fantastic, WEALTH-building investment opportunities will be presented to us. The challenge for all of us will be to get to that day, with our capital and our wits intact. Good luck to us all. Cheers