Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (58369)	3/11/2002 11:39:19 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

I always use calendar, not fiscal, years, so that when I'm comparing different companies, it's apples-to-apples. I don't always remember to state that in my posts. As far as whether we are (back) in a Bubble: the S&P 500 has been above the top end of it's very-LT PE range (10-20), almost continuously to the last 10 years. If you had gone to cash a decade ago, when the market PE hit 20, you'd still be waiting for reasonable non-bubble valuations. I am using 1999 as the only clearly Bubble year. I am using the 1994-1997 valuation areas as the area where I expect valuations to go to and stay. Especially since the recession seems (unexpectedly) to already be over, and the consumer never quit spending, I think it highly unlikely the market goes to valuations lower than what we saw in 10/01. I can't justify it or explain why, but that's what investors are doing, and I'm not going to fight the trend. Lots of Bears just keep muttering, "it shouldn't be this way, PEs should be single-digit". I don't find that a useful stance.