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To: AllansAlias who wrote (33903)	3/11/2002 10:09:18 AM
From: reaper	Respond to of 209892

AA, thank you for your reply, and your invitation. I do not post here as I feel I don't have much to add, but most enjoy reading you, Shack, Paul and others as I attempt to refine my game in terms of WHEN to initiate positions (I'm really good at the WHAT part of the game). After dutifully complementing you, i will now take slight issue with part of your response.... <<If you are over 40, then you may not have time to "buy the bottom" as you suggest.>> One, I would like to re-iterate a point from my prior post, that life IS in fact LONG so people who are over 40 actually have quite a lot of time, IF they are PATIENT, maintain liquidity, and lower expectations. My TIPS, for example, when I bought them paid 4% real (I'm not sure of the rate now; of course that 4% real also implies that you believe gov't inflation stats, but I don't want to get that argument going here). 4% real, as you know, DOUBLES your purchasing power in a mere 20 years, and quadruples it in 40. I frankly find a doubling of my purchasing power in 20 years, backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, to be a remarkable deal. But that is of course partially due to the fact that my parents raised me to have the patience that is so lacking in investors today. To the extent that when you said "over 40", you were also meant to speak of people in their 60s who "may not have time", I can only (and most ungenerously) say "I don't care". Anybody who is in their 50s or older today was in their 30s or older at the beginning of the greatest bull market in basically ALL assets (stocks, bonds, and real estate) in US history. To the extent that those people are NOT financially secure today, and thus don't have time to "wait" until the next bull market, they only have themselves to blame as they lacked exactly the patience and discipline that I am advocating (of course, there are certainly exceptions to this, folks who may have experienced medical difficulties or sick parents or what not, but I am generalizing here). Anyway, the main point of my prior post is that, except for the most adept among us (of which I am certainly NOT one) bear markets are NOT really opportune times to build WEALTH. IF one believes that the US is in a long bear market, then in my opinion one's goal should be primarily to PRESERVE capital and liquidity; most who try to aggressively GROW their capital during the bear (on the long or the short side) will be dis-appointed as the market destroys ALL clowns. I am a big fan of the TV show 'Survivor'. Its motto is my personal mantra for the bear market. Outwit. Outplay. OUTLAST. Cheers