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Strategies & Market Trends : Paint The Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (18823)	3/11/2002 3:14:59 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23786

neither AMCC or PMCS are participating in the breakout above friday's highs.

To: Oral Roberts who wrote (18823)	3/11/2002 3:16:03 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 23786

nationalpost.com Dow forecast to regain record high Despite yesterday's slide: Nasdaq up most, but needs 171% gain to retake peak Paul Haavardsrud Financial Post, with files from news services Stock indexes gave back some gains yesterday, with the red-hot Dow Jones industrial average giving back the most. But in a growing mood of bullishness on Wall Street, some analysts were plotting record highs ahead for the closely watched benchmark. Major North American indexes are now sitting on gains of between 19% and 31% from their September lows, but only the Dow is within striking distance of its record high close. It closed yesterday at 10,433, down 153 points, but needs only 1,290 points or a 12% advance to retake its high close of 11,723 reached on Jan. 14, 2000. Tobias Levkovich, chief strategist at Salomon Smith Barney in New York, lifted his target level for the Dow yesterday, to 11,400 from 10,800. Investors waiting for stocks to dip before buying into the rally could also be waiting in vain, he warned. "Over the next few weeks more companies will concede that things are in fact improving," Mr. Levkovich wrote in a research note to clients. "Another powerful rally could occur in April as upwards earnings revisions mix with potential breakouts on the charts, thereby bringing in momentum money." Prudential Securities chief strategist Ralph Acampora said the current upward momentum will help the blue chip index run up another 1300-plus points to reach a new high of 11,767. Considering the Nasdaq composite will still have to climb a whopping 171% to reach its former high and the economy is still mired in a downturn, such a swift return to glory for the Dow wouldn't seem to add up. But unlike the Nasdaq, which plummeted 72% from its high in March, 2000, to its low on Sept. 21, the Dow only fell 30% from its January, 2000, peak to its trough late last September. Putting the performances of the technology-filled Nasdaq and the old-economy tilted Dow industrials in perspective isn't difficult. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HWP/NYSE) fell 66% during the Dow's slide, making it the worst performing stock in that benchmark. While dismal, HP's struggles were a pittance compared to the Nasdaq's telecom, Internet and software wasteland, which boasted firms such as Palm Inc., JDS Uniphase and Yahoo! Inc., all of which lost more than 95% of their value. While growth names helped both the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 and Standard & Poor's 500 index outperform the Dow during the glory days of the technology bubble, both indexes were saved from a Nasdaq-style drubbing by a healthy mix of resource and basic materials stocks. From peak to trough the TSE fell 42% and is now needs to gain 45% to retake its former high, while S&P 500 fell 37% and needs to rise 33% to rescale its peak. Even the faith of some of Wall Street's staunchest bears has been shaken by the major indexes regaining so much ground so quickly. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley's Barton Biggs grudgingly and colourfully admitted that the recent rally, which is being supported by favourable economic data, likely has legs. "Although I continue to expect the recovery to be insipid and to abort sooner rather than later, I have to accept that right now things are better than expected." BEAR MARKET SCORECARD: Peak-to-trough decline (%) % up from bottom % rise needed to regain high % gain in 2002 Dow 30 27 12 4.1 S&P 500 37 19 33 -0.2 TSE 300 42 21 45 2.2 Nasdaq 72 31 171 -4.3 Source: Bloomberg News phaavardsrud@nationalpost.com