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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (39905)	3/11/2002 4:21:43 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I think you're deluded. In the time frames we trade, it DOES NOT hang around these levels long before a sell-off and a VIX spike. More accurately for this type of market, the indices do not continue rallying until fear is "refreshed". And indeed during the late 1998 to 2000 bull, we had repeated VIX spikes to the 30 area to 'allow' the market to continue its upwards assault. There is no mystery here. We are now at a 10 day VIX reading where tops occur. The only question remains is it just a minor top or something greater.

To: limtex who wrote (39905)	3/11/2002 4:44:50 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 99280

Mr. VIX doesn't talk but sometimes he sends secret messages. Check out the closing number on the nasdaq. Perhaps Mr. VIX is trying to tell you something.<g>

To: limtex who wrote (39905)	3/11/2002 11:39:52 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

to how it know we are all watching it and using it? How on earth does it do that? What generally happens with widely used indicators is that people with large chunks of $ begin using them for their decision-making. For example, if a VIX of 22 was proven to be a valid sell signal, institutional players and large numbers of private investors would tend to sell just before the 22 level was reached, in anticipation of an immanent decline. If such a tendency comes into play, it generally squeezes together the extremes, causing a narrowing of the indicator's range. I'm not sure if that's happening with the VIX, but that's the general pattern. Technical indicators work somewhat differently, as self-fulfilling prophecies: when a key support level is broken, investors and trader think that's a bearish signal, therefore they sell or refrain from buying, which causes the prophecy to be fulfilled.