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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JeffT who wrote (58393)	3/11/2002 5:11:22 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

ROTFLMAO! You want the skinny, folks? Here goes. I was right when I stated to John earlier that I suspected stock options exercises provided an insignificant amount of cash in the quarter ended january. In addition, I have discovered that Cisco is indeed a powerful cash generating franchise from true core operations alone. Operating cash flows from true operations, meaning I excluded provisions for doubtful accounts and inventories, tax benefits from employee stock options, restructuring costs, and net (gains)/losses from investments, came out to a whopping $1.941 billion for Q2'02. That represents 40% of sales of $4.816 billion. That is a stellar result, folks. Also, remember that I based my DCF on a long term adjust operating cash flow to sales percentage of only 19%. If Cisco has adjusted their business operating model to generate 25% cash on sales every quarter from true operations, then that would bump up my fair value estimate to $17.08. Being conservative, though, I'd say 20% is long term sustainable, which gives an estimate of $13.67. So currently, Cisco is priced at the high end of my range, but I wouldn't be overly alarmed, because by all measures, Cisco kicked ass last quarter, and with this management team in place, they will continue to kick ass. I stand by my target estimate for year end of $25 per share.