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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58398)	3/11/2002 8:18:03 PM
From: JeffT	Respond to of 77400

Here is something that will drive some of you guys crazy! "Cisco Details Financing of Start-Up In Filing Responding to SEC Request By SCOTT THURM Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Cisco Systems Inc. offered significant new disclosures in a regulatory filing, including details about unusual financing of an in-house start-up that could bring its employees billions of dollars." online.wsj.com Jeff

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58398)	3/12/2002 7:44:42 AM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77400

I agree wholeheartedly that PEs should be increasing over time. But this is a gradual process. And it isn't anything new. The risk premium has been declining for a long time, and technology has been improving for a long time. No matter whether it is railroads, electricity, or the Internet, in the long run things are getting better. So while I would agree with your premise that the overall market PE should be higher, we are still way out of a reasonable range right now. Two things will end up happening--either earnings will be much higher over the next couple of years than we currently believe, or the market will decline.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (58398)	3/12/2002 10:13:18 AM
From: hueyone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

The key is to look at the macro picture, not the micro. Ok, perhaps GDP (Gross Domestic Product),is a reasonable measure to look it to gauge overall growth in the economy. Maybe I am all wet, but I really don't expect a dramatic, sustainable change in the overall growth rate for GDP as a result of technological advances and productivity. Hasn't the government already revised downward some of their numbers in recent years regarding growth attributable to productivity enhancements? Anyway, here is an updated chart for GDP. It may be worth keeping an eye on. Please recognize that there is a both a "real" component and an "inflation" component to gains in GDP, although I believe the inflation component has indeed been minimal in recent years. bea.gov There may be higher PEs for a number of reasons, but I still have trouble with the notion that were are entering an era of higher overall, sustainable real corporate profitability. I will believe it when I see it. Best, Huey@skepticsareus.com