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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (9299)	3/12/2002 12:39:01 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 36161

You many not want to try this at home, but I shorted our pals JP Morgan (JPM) yesterday off the fluffy Barrons weekend article, and a moment ago shorted Radian Group (RDN). The later are non-prime private mortgage insurers, the guys who will insure ANYBODY (37% with LTV's 95% or more, 26% ARMS). $108 billion insurance in force against a two and billion capital base. Of this $3.1 billion is already in default and they've convinced Wall Street their $208 million loan provision from last quarter has it handled. Meanwhile the stock has explode to 49 given their great "loan growth". Kind of like the slumlord who always has full buildings and great rents, as after all he will rent to anybody with first month's rent in their pocket. Time for a little exposure to the "credit excess" plays now that everybody seems to think it's time to go back in the water. RDN is one of those that could go to zero.

To: gold$10k who wrote (9299)	3/12/2002 2:19:16 PM
From: rolatzi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

I too sold SWC but would be interested in reloading if it gets back into the 17.5 range or at such time that it is oversold. It looks like it is at the beginning of its recovery. What have you stocked up on in the way of other higher leverage PM plays? I have bought a small amount of PDG and am still shopping. It seems to be forming a nice bottoming patter. Thanks, Ro