To: S100 who wrote (18808 ) 3/12/2002 1:02:56 PM From: JohnG Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857 Europeans to further delay the UMTS version of CDMA until 2004 CEBIT-Vodafone Germany sees no 3G mass market before 2004 By Kirstin Ridley and Boris Groendahl HANOVER, Germany, March 12 (Reuters) - The German subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc, the world's largest mobile phone company, said on Tuesday it did not expect a mass market for high-speed, new-generation services before 2004. Speaking on the fringes of a press conference at the Cebit technology fair in Germany, the head of Vodafone D2 told Reuters that although the group planned to pilot third-generation (3G) mobiles this autumn, it could take another three years before the service really takes off. "I do not expect a mass market before 2004 or 2005," Juergen von Kuczkowski said. "There will be no Big Bang. This will be an evolution and (current) GSM services will long remain our core business." Vodafone's Chief Executive Chris Gent has said he expects to bring "meaningful" supplies of 3G handsets, which offer speedy Internet and multimedia services, into high streets by the middle of next year, trying to appease a market concerned about further 3G delays. And earlier on Tuesday, Peter Erskine, the chief executive of British-based cellphone rival Mm02, also stuck by targets to launch volume 3G services by next summer -- if equipment suppliers came up with the goods in time. But von Kuczkowski, whose business controls around 40 percent of the German market, was keen to emphasise definitions. He noted that the take-up of current GSM mobile services, which have wooed around 70 percent of Europeans on cellphone networks to date, was unlikely to be matched by 3G for some time. 3G DELAY TO HIT NEW ENTRANTS The six operators in Germany, Europe's biggest telecoms market, are only required by current licence requirements to build a network covering 25 percent of the population by the end of 2003 -- and address 50 percent by end-2005. But analysts worry that operators, which have forked out over 100 billion euros ($87 billion) on 3G licences and are expected to pay around 80 billion euros more for new networks, are pushing back 3G launches as companies struggle with the vast cost of developing new technologies and bringing them to market. Analysts say any delays in 3G spending spells particularly bad news for new entrants, which are facing the prospect of ever more distant 3G revenues to help pay down high debts while they struggle to build market share. While Finland's Nokia, the world's top handset maker, tried to wet an appetite for 3G phones by whipping one out ahead of an official launch in September, von Kuczkowski said only it was too soon to speculate about handset supplies. Vodafone D2, which plans flat capital expenditure in Germany of around 1.0 billion euros this year, said it expected only "a few thousand" 3G cellphones to be available this autumn. But the group said it was sure enough handsets would be available in 2003 to satisfy customer demand for a new service, with a new tariff structure, which will be aimed at top earners. Partly for this reason, von Kuczkowski said Vodafone believed it had enough 3G network capacity, or spectrum, in Germany until beyond 2004. "We do not expect to have problems with our current spectrum levels in the foreseeable future," he said. "We will not be eyeing up the spectrum of some of our rivals." Warning German regulators against bowing to industry demand by allowing any merging competitors to keep all their spectrum, von Kuczkowski demanded there be no relaxation in licence rules that might benefit some of its weaker competitors. Under current German licence rules, merging companies have to hand back one licence, which comes with 20 megahertz of spectrum. As each licence cost around 8.4 billion euros, this is seen as a costly barrier to consolidation in Europe's most competitive telecoms market. (Additional reporting by Hendrik Sackmann) 09:13 03-12-02