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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: axial who wrote (9017)	3/13/2002 12:54:09 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Hi Jim, The $6500 as treatment cost are in line with what I've heard. Barring better information, I like your second scenario better(more conservative) of $1500 gross margin per patient. My work on WF10 has never proceeded to detailed calculations so much as asking previous contacts how big this market might be and why although its been suggested that COS for WF10 would be extremely low. Numbers I was given as estimates were (averaged out) that there were something in the neighbourhood of 350,000 AIDS sufferers with CD4 counts in the low 100's in the US and this was offered as conservative with estimates of growth in the sub 5% range. What I'm hopeful of in this phase III is profiling of sub groups with relation to current treatment with and without WF10 (eg: HAART or solely Protease Inhibitors). This profiling is extremely likely and I would like to see clear evidence of the proposition that WF10 can be added to a variety of current treatments without adverse results versus the control patients and that adding it produced verifiable, improved results in those same sub groups. Not new thinking; but, in my mind the basis for expansion of WF10 application in conjunction with other therapies beyond salvage solely. I can't speak to fast tracking though I am convinced the profile of WF10 fits precisely with the criteria and strong P3 results would give us an excellent case. I see you are using f2003 (ending May 31, 2004)and I fully agree using fiscal years. However due to the penetration growth rates over multiple periods common to biotechs, I focus also on quarterly results as a run rate (latest quarter times 4) which I think will more accurately capture the timing/evalutation components. Back to that in a moment. It IS interesting estimating the NASDAQ placement size. In your scenario DMX would take in something under $75 million US plus the $22 million or so from the other partners. That's a LOT of cash; but, I agree the NAZ placement must be a decent size and no doubt the largest single placement in DMX history. I believe there is reasonable probability (I guess at better than 50/50) that DMX will be trading above $8 Cdn at that point and will be closer to the $15 Cdn range based on FDA approval and a signed J&J calibre partner. It is my personal suspicion that there may be a $10 US target price. My estimates are a fall listing and a November launch. Back to the modeling: I show a US NSAID market of 10.6 billion mid 2004 based solely on demographics. In Q4 '03 (Mar-May 2004) my model has 58.1 million in US pennsaid sales. This equates to approximately 1.9% of the US market at that time. I use 57 million shares O/S at that time and arrive at slightly over $1 EPS Cdn. I include no WF10. I consider growth to these sales in 6 quarters as reasonable in obtaining an overall conservative model without sitting in the weeds. Factors are timing of launch, success of marketing strategy, availability of various comparative and effectiveness data, DMSO resistance, DMX share, cost of production, and expense base growth (there are more). While I believe there is a serious possibility that WF10 could be launched by that quarter - I will wait until I hear the P3 results and ownership change before including it in projections. Still I get a $25 Cdn shareprice based on the continuation of the Pennsaid high double digit growth curve and the accelerating Q to Q DMX earnings and profit growth. I am unaware of what revenue sharing there will be in the structure of the OXO deal - but it will be high for some time to come. In my opinion solid P3 results and an approval by May 04 would jump the stockprice materially all the way along. When revenue comes, I believe the numbers will be suprising. I expect Rebecca to accelerate the Hepatitis C trial pace. I have heard numbers that 5% of the worlds population may have HepC by mid decade. On the birdwatch, Wolf