To: PCSS who wrote (96020 ) 3/13/2002 9:33:43 AM From: Elwood P. Dowd Respond to of 97611 Sageza Group Analysis of the Deal by: skeptically 03/13/02 09:32 am Msg: 276642 of 276642 newsalert.com rch-&StoryTitle=compaq March 13, 2002 09:10 Will Commoditization Force HP to Retreat to the Past or to Invent the Future? The Sageza Group Analysis of Upcoming HP and Compaq Merger Opportunity MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 13, 2002--After Hewlett-Packard announced its intention to merge with rival Compaq Computer, HP heir and board member Walter Hewlett faced a crisis of confidence. Should he stand with the aligned forces of HP's leadership or give council to fears of a future he could not envision? Sageza analysts have interpreted the numerous announcements and market machinations leading up to impending shareholder votes and have found that many, including Walter Hewlett, have misread the potential value of this merger. "Walter Hewlett has implored HP stockholders not to 'trade HP's crown jewel imaging and printing business for Compaq's low-margin commodity computing business,'" states Harry Fenik, President of The Sageza Group, Inc. "In a fundamental misstep, Mr. Hewlett's opining that HP's signature imaging and printing business will be compromised by Compaq's essential focus on PC manufacturing misses or oversimplifies much of the synergy this merger generates." The Sageza Group's recently released paper, Commoditization, Standards and the Enterprise, points out that the emergence of commodity components is driving a fundamental change in the IT marketplace. HP and Compaq, this should not be viewed negatively, but rather as a confirmation of the strategic directions both companies embarked upon several years ago. Sageza believes that a close examination of Compaq's business shows that it matches or leads HP in PDAs, laptops, thin clients, low- and high-end servers, data storage, and mainframe computing, not to mention the PCs Mr. Hewlett is so fixated on. HP, on the other hand, matches or exceeds Compaq in mid- and high-end servers, middleware and management software, networking technology, enterprise services and, of course, printing and imaging. These are areas where the combined company can achieve significant cost savings in R&D, marketing and manufacturing with -- if the deal is executed successfully -- little risk of losing market position. The paper reminds the reader of the important distinction between commodity components and commodity products. Commodity components, such as disk drives, memory chips, and especially CPUs, are defining and delivering architectures that reduce the cost of developing and delivering finished goods without compromising quality. On the other hand, commodity products have little differentiation beyond brand and price because they fill simple, static needs. PCs, clearly trending in this direction, are a concern for any PC vendor with an eye to having a future. Where Mr. Hewlett has gone wrong is in confusing commodity PCs with the industry's migration to commodity components. "The unprecedented commoditization of high-end CPUs being fueled by Intel's 32- and 64-bit architectures is fundamentally changing the market opportunity," states Fenik. ....con't at link.............