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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (32200)	3/14/2002 3:50:18 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Hi Iso, listen to these GDP speculations: 11:21 ET 10-year: -18/32..5.354%....GNMAs: -11/32....$-¥: 128.76 As highlighted in an early week Bond Brief the turn in inventories from a tremendous decline of $120 bln in Q4 to a potential rise in Q1 willprovide an absolutely tremendous boost to overall GDP growth. Even flat inventory growth would lift GDP a full 5% leaving an astounding 7% Q1 growth pace very possible. With just January inventories reported its premature to tie too much to one month of inventory data but do expect Q1 growth estimates to move significantly higher as the inventory potential is included. The downside risk is second half growth if new orders don't keep production running and results in a growth stumble or even the double dip recession some still watch for. --------------- 08:34 ET 10-year: -7/32..5.306%....GNMAs: Unch....$-¥: 128.71 January business inventories rose 0.2% as retailers showed a surprising 1.4% increase. Nonetheless, with a 1.1% jump in business sales the 1.38 inventory/sales ratio is just above the record low. Initial claims fell 3K to 377K to leave a slightly higher 375K 4-week average as the indicator continues to bounce in a 20K range. ---------------------- 08:04 ET 10-year: -7/32..5.306%....GNMAs: Unch....$-¥: 128.56 Of the four 8:30 ET economic releases business inventories and sales is the most relevant. The 1.1% jump in sales already seen in the data combine with an expected 0.4% drop in inventories to leave a return to the lowest inventory/sales ratio in at least 15 years and most likely a record low. Dead low inventories has tightened the relationship between new orders and production given the lack of existing stock to fill orders. The downtrend in Initial claims for unemployment benefits has slowed. Claims have held in a 20K range over the last six weeks centered at 371K. Import and export prices provide a little direction for international trade as the current account adds financial transactions to the trade data to leave the broadest measure of US global transactions.