Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 4:21:43 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "I can't really argue against valuation concerns, but why did it take them so long?" They probably had some major selling to do before they begin setting up to buy back at lower levels. AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 4:31:30 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

PC unit growth strengthens, causing IDC to nudge up forecast Semiconductor Business News (03/13/02 09:31 a.m. EST) FRAMINGHAM, Mass. -- With a little help from consumer PC buying, worldwide personal computer shipments will grow slightly more than previously expected to 125.5 million systems in 2002, an increase of 3% over last year compared to a previous forecast of 1.8% growth, said International Data Corp. here today. Consumer PC shipments are expected to grow 5.3% in 2002, while commercial systems will be up 1.8% from last year, said IDC (see table below). The market research firm said it has increased its PC unit shipment forecast in response to stronger-than-expected retail sales in the United States and growing demand in Western Europe. With the exception of the Asia Pacific market, all other regions showed slightly faster growth rates in personal computer purchases in the final three months of 2001, causing IDC to up its 2002 forecast. For the first time ever, PC unit shipments declines in 2001, dropping 5.2% to 121.8 million computers, IDC said. The drop of PC units last year was a major contributor to the semiconductor recession. Last year's drop came after PC shipments grew at 23.9% and 15.9% in 1999 and 2000, respectively. "Economic indicators in the United States have finally begun to point consistently to a recovery," said analyst Roger Kay, director of client computing at IDC. "Given that productivity and confidence measures correlate closely with PC shipments, we can expect improving performance in the PC market through the year. Thus, we have raised our outlook from slightly negative to slightly positive in terms of expected year-on-year growth in 2002. "Consumer buying should follow a normal seasonal pattern, and purchasing activity by commercial entities is expected to rise slowly but steadily," he said. IDC said several trends in the fourth quarter of 2001 indicate that PC markets around the world are recovering from a sluggish 2001. In Europe, for example, commercial desktop and consumer portable PCs picked up in Q4, according to the research firm, which said it expects that trend to continue in 2002. The Framingham researcher said China--which now accounts for 42% of PC shipments in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), will continue to drive growth in the region. IDC noted that China's PC growth slowed considerably in 2001, but that country's market grew at 7.8% in the fourth quarter. China is now expected to continue to drive growth in the region in 2002. Japan's economy continues to hold down PC sales, but IDC does not see further erosion in that country. "With growing signs of economic recovery supporting the market, both consumers and commercial buyers are feeling more confident making significant IT purchases," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "By yearend we expect consumers will be even more optimistic and that their PC spending will reflect that. Commercial spending should also improve, as replacement buying picks up." IDC said it expects worldwide PC shipments to continue to decline year-on-year in the first quarter of 2002, although the second quarter should be roughly on par with a year ago, and in Q3 and Q4 the market is expected to grow by almost 10%. PC shipment scorecard Segment 2000 2001 2002 2003 U.S. home 18.8 million (+9.1%) 15.0 million (-20.1%) 16.4 million (+9.3%) 17.5 million (+6.5%) U.S. commercial 28.1 million (+5.5%) 26.1 million (-7.0%) 25.8 million (-1.4%) 28.6 million (+11.0%) Non-U.S. home 30.4 million (+39.8%) 28.4 million (-6.6%) 29.3 million (+3.2%) 32.8 million (+12.1%) Non-U.S. commercial 51.3 million (+13.2%) 52.3 million (+1.9%) 54.0 million (+3.3%) 60.3 million (+11.7%) World home 49.2 million (+26.2%) 43.4 million (-11.7%) 45.7 million (+5.3%) 50.3 million (+10.0%) World commercial 79.3 million (+10.4%) 78.4 million (-1.2%) 79.8 million (+1.8%) 88.9 million (+11.5%) World PC total 128.5 million (+15.9%) 121.8 million (-5.2%) 125.5 million (+3.0%) 139.2 million (+10.9%) siliconstrategies.com AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 4:37:44 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

Good luck with your calls Gottfried. BTW, In its 10K, Intel confirmed its capex at $5.5B for 2002: "Intel 10-K repeats financial targets" marketwatch.com snip: "In the filing, Intel also repeated its financial targets for 2002 -- 51 percent for gross margins, capital expenditures of $5.5 billion, depreciation of $4.6 billion, amortization of $440 million, and R&D spending of $4.1 billion." AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 4:52:47 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, <<I can't really argue against valuation concerns, but why did it take them so long?>> They didn't want to spoil the party last week, and also they weren't satisfied with the rather mild pullback in the group on Monday and Tuesday. They had to make sure they killed the group today so it would stay down for expiry on Friday. Next week it will be OK for some gains.<gg> Don

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 5:02:26 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I can't really argue against valuation concerns, but why did it take them so long? My turn, From the tape; they discovered that most of the shorts were finishing covering their "old positions(8M more shares were shorted bet. $39 and $45 bet. 1/15 and 2/15)". nasdaq.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (62021)	3/13/2002 8:55:58 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

I can't really argue against valuation concerns, but why did it take them so long? Perhaps the $100M order rumored for LRCX is the start of the great flood that J. Morgan has been saying is coming??? One last chance to knock em down since they missed buying at much lower prices? Triple witch is Friday too... I'm guessing but I would think the boyz will take one last shot at bringing down prices for the major clients on the sidelines. "it is the economy stupid" and the economy is in recovery mode. Do I trust them? Is the bear catholic? Kirk