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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (9357)	3/13/2002 5:02:46 PM
From: t4texas	Respond to of 36161

it's in the 80s down here in texas. the cold snap (in the 20s and teens) was about two weeks ago, and i thought this draw would look high. we will see soon if the large draws continue.

To: nspolar who wrote (9357)	3/13/2002 7:33:07 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

ns. 6 reasons for the rocket ride in NG stocks. Weather is certainly 1 factor. After abnormally warm temps in Jan & Feb, we're having a colder than normal March. (Note the 3rd chart in particular with the a below color code across the key NG consuming areas of the Midwest & norther Plains states, and very cold in the Rockies, for the 10 days ahead.) grads.iges.org This has caught most players by surprise. Still by itself this excellent cool weather is a short term factor. Much milder Spring temperatures are not far off. 2nd. My read is that there was a major institutional portfolio blow out in late January (and into last month) as large long holders gave up on even an average winter and engaged in massive liquidation. That's the kind of classic capitulation that sets the stage for a major bull run, especially in the context of an economic recovery. Now? Institutions are discovering they zigged when they should have zagged and find themselves under invested in a very strong group with the 1st Qtr almost over. And Iso doth luv to get long well ahead of those doods!<g> That brings us to the reason # 3. The growing recognition that - even if sub-par - we have an economic recovery underway and that's very bullish for cyclicals like the NG stocks. Especially one that's just been washed out like the gassers. 4th is an important fundamental point presented several times in recent months by my friend Russ Winter. A substantial number of nuclear plant shutdowns are and will continue to result in higher NG demand for electricity generation. That plus the colder than expected temperatures has really shown up in spades with the big draws from NG storage reported by the AGA this afternoon and last Wednesday. 5th, there's the LT demand pull from a continuing slow dance of NG electric generating plants being build and coming on line. 6th, the long term supply bugaboos of rapid gas well depletion rates combined with the large drop in NA drilling is giving even greater weight to the demand factors mentioned above. Cheers to all. Will try to stop back later. Isopatch