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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (2271)	3/14/2002 9:04:55 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95609

From Briefing.com: 08:04 ET UMC United Micro: Spot secondary of 47 mln shares prices at $9.25 (9.75) 7:49AM Drop in DRAM prices could hit tech stocks-- DBAB : DB Alex. Brown out of Japan believes that the probability has increased that a drop in DRAM prices will trigger a correction in tech stocks, based on: 1) firm does not believe there has been any increase in final demand for audiovisual equipment and PCs, 2) DRAM makers have begun stepping up their output, 3) MU-Hynix deal has hit a snag, and 4) spot dealers have accumulated DRAM inventories, which they will need to unload once prices start falling. 7:36AM CoorsTek tapped by InVision for supply chain management (CRTK) 33.05: Signs letter of intent to become a contract manufacturing partner to support the expansion of production capacity of InVision's CTX brand explosives detection systems. Under the letter of intent, CoorsTek will also manage InVision's supply chain related to its CTX 2500 and CTX 5500DS systems, whether manufactured by CoorsTek or otherwise. 7:25AM Atmel Corp upped to Buy at BofA -- biz has bottomed (ATML) 8.42: Banc of America Sec upgrades to BUY from Mkt Perform. Firm believes that business at Atmel has bottomed andis likely to reaccelerate in the JunQ. While firm does not anticipate any upside to the MarQ, believes sequential growth of 5-10% in JunQ. Firm has a price target of $12. 7:19AM CSFB lowers PC forecast, trims estimates : CSFB lowers their 2002 PC unit growth forecast to 5% from 10% due to the following reasons: 1) checks indicate there is no evidence of a commercial pick-up with 2 weeks to go in Q1, 2) most IT managers seem to have pushed their hardware procurement plans into late 2002 or beyond, 3) consumer PC sales have recently shown signs of cooling, and 4) stronger macro economic data is occurring without tech end market participation; firm does not believe that rallies are worth chasing. Trims 2002 ests for HWP and CPQ, and 2003 ests for DELL and TECD. 7:13AM KLA-Tencor likely to deliver MarQ upside -- Pru (KLAC) 63.25: Prudential says tone was quite upbeat yesterday from companies participating in its Silicon Valley Bus Tour. Firm comes away from KLAC visit with view co is likely to deliver revenue and EPS upside in the MarQ and provide upside order guidance of 10%. 8:55AM : Not much enthusiasm in the futures market this morning as there hasn't been much in the way of corporate, or economic, news to get excited about... As such, the equity market could remain in consolidation mode as the lack of bullish catalysts prompts some additional profit taking.... Tech sector likely to face the most scrutiny in that respect as more analysts have come out today questioning its growth prospects-- CSFB has lowered its 2002 PC unit growth forecast to 5% from 10% and has cut its EPS estimates for several companies in the computer hardware and electronics manufacturing services industries; and Deutsche Banc Alex.Brown believes the probability has increased that a drop in DRAM prices will trigger a correction in tech stocks... Presently, the S&P futures, -0.20, are 1.80 points above fair value while the Nasdaq 100 PMI is up 1 point. 08:39 ET Opening Indications A sligtly negative response in the futures market to the economic data, but nothing serious of note... Presently, the S&P futures are +0.40, and are trading 2.40 points above fair value while the Nasdaq 100 PMI is up 3 points. 08:33 ET Jobless Claims fell 3K to 377K; close to expectations Jobless claims fell 3K to 377K in the Mar 9 week, which was very close to the 375K consensus and will have no impact. January Business Inventories posted a surprise increase of 0.2%, the first increase in a year. This increase is consistent with the notion that inventory rebuilding is the catalyst behind the economic recovery. The Current Account deficit was $98.8 bln in Q4, a touch below the $101.3 bln consensus and of little interest. Nothing in today's release will move the markets. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC&d=t Looks like they continue to forecast fog and confusion to me. Makes me wonder if there is not a lot of short term institutional trading going on in these stocks. ANAD is up 11% in premarket. ATML up 4.5% but the tone has weakened. The DRAM comments and questions on PC demand will continue to put pressure on the SOX. Thanks for your insights, RtS

To: scott_jiminez who wrote (2271)	3/16/2002 2:27:50 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95609

SmartMoney.com - Stock Watch When the Coal-Mine Canary Starts Chirping Again By Monica Rivituso biz.yahoo.com FOR THOSE NOT in the chip-equipment know, wire bonders — machines that connects chips to their packaging with tiny wires — sound like a real snooze. But if you're a shareholder of Kulicke & Soffa Industries (NASDAQ:KLIC - news), the leading manufacturer of these gizmos — or if you're a forward-looking tech investor of any stripe — then you know that wire bonders are thrilling stuff indeed. Back in August 2000, Kulicke revealed that some customers were delaying orders of its equipment. The announcement drove the stock down 25% to $16.63 from $22.13 in one day's time. The events at Kulicke were analyzed from every which way, since pullbacks in the company's orders had served as troubling harbingers in the past. The worry was that, while precious few signs pointed to an imminent downturn in the seemingly unstoppable chip market, Kulicke might be the canary in the coal mine. And as it turned out, the coal mine was about to implode. Kulicke & Soffa's order downturn presaged the beginning of the worst contraction on record for chip-equipment makers. After industry sales nearly doubled to $47.68 billion in 2000, they fell a staggering 41% last year, according to the industry group Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International. It's easy to see why some folks read Kulicke's order patterns so closely. But while Kulicke can warn if dark clouds are looming on the horizon, it can also signal when sunnier skies are on the way. The company announced on Feb. 25 that it had received a letter of intent from Amkor Technology (NASDAQ:AMKR - news) to purchase 200 of its newest wire bonders. As chips become tinier and more technologically complex, chip makers have to accommodate the demands of these sophisticated dimensions with their testing and packaging. Investing in the latest wire-bonding machinery suggests that companies are again willing to start spending on the newest chip equipment. The import wasn't lost on investors: Kulicke shares surged 25% to $21.06 from $16.84 in the two weeks following the announcement. Some other companies have offered glimmers of hope as well. Earlier this month, chip-equipment maker Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS - news) surprised analysts with some optimistic comments during its midquarter update. Thanks to strengthening orders from the U.S. and Asia (excluding Japan), Chief Executive Richard Hill said first-quarter bookings should come in between $130 million and $150 million — better than the previous guidance for $130 million. Not only that, but the first-quarter loss should be nine cents a share, a penny less than expected. Other companies could very well provide some more snippets of positive news in the upcoming weeks, as they report first-quarter results and issue guidance. Make no mistake though, 2002 is a recovery year for this industry. Last year's decline in capital-equipment spending was so steep that it will take some time to bounce back. While Dean Freeman, a principal analyst at Gartner Dataquest, expects orders to improve in the first half of this year and revenue to follow in the second half, he says 2002 sales will still show a year-over-year decline. But the chip-equipment industry should show solid growth in 2003 and 2004, much like the chip industry. With an industry upturn seemingly in the offing, should investors take positions in chip-equipment stocks? Trouble is, most are quite expensive now. According to Zacks Research, the broad chip-equipment industry trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 157.7 — more than six times the Standard & Poor's 500 P/E of 23.5. And on a price-to-earnings-growth, or PEG, basis, things don't look much better: These companies carry a hefty PEG of 10.5, versus the S&P's 3.1. Mind you, that's just looking at companies that have earnings at all — consensus estimates for many companies this year are still firmly planted in the red. Things start to look a bit better, though, when the focus narrows to the makers of testing and measurement equipment, like KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC - news). As a group (again, only examining those expected to earn something this year), these companies carry a P/E of 41.3 and a PEG of three — still on the pricey side, but not as outrageous as some other chip-equipment makers. A pullback in these stocks might give risk-taking investors an opportunity to get in. With downturns as brutal as they are, chip-equipment investing can be a stomach-turning prospect. The upside is that business conditions — and consequently earnings expectations — can change for the better just as quickly. Anything chip-related tends to behave like a faucet: It's either turned on all the way and water's gushing out, or it's twisted shut and not a drip's escaping. Right now, the early signals suggest that the industry's gearing up to open the spigot.