To: PCSS who wrote (96078 ) 3/14/2002 11:53:57 AM From: Elwood P. Dowd Respond to of 97611 PC Stocks Fall as Analysts' Forecasts Converge Thu Mar 14,11:47 AM ET By Nicole Volpe NEW YORK (Reuters) - Personal computer stocks fell as industry watchers issued conflicting opinions on whether the industry, which saw its first decline ever last year, was set for a rebound in 2002. CSFB analyst Kevin McCarthy on Thursday said he is lowering his hopes for the sector, trimming his 2002 unit growth forecast to 5 percent from 10 percent. In contrast to renewed hopes cited this week by market research firm International Data Corp. that corporate spending will lead a rebound, McCarthy called corporations a "no-show." He cited his own checks with resellers, direct salespeople and systems integrators, who he said see no evidence of a commercial pickup. "Most IT managers seem to have pushed their hardware procurement plans into late 2002 or beyond," McCarthy wrote in a note to clients. McCarthy did not change his investment ratings on the stocks but warned clients not to chase any rallies in the PC sector. "We believe most PC-related companies will guide to flattish June quarter revenues from a slightly lower than expected March quarter result when reporting season kicks in next month," he said. "Most hardware stocks already reflect expectations of flattish sales trends but may get spooked by the return of a glum tone on April conference calls," he added. IDC earlier this week raised its forecast for computer shipments, saying the market has been buoyed by strong U.S. retail sales and renewed hope for a jump in corporate technology spending. No. 2 PC maker Compaq Computer Corp. shares fell 22 cents, or 2 percent, to $10.78 and No. 1 PC maker Dell Computer Corp. fell 34 cents, or more than 1 percent, to $26.48. Gateway Inc. fell 17 cents, or nearly 3 percent, to $5.61. Overall, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was higher, up 6.26, or less than 1 percent, to 1868.27. IDC raised its forecasts of shipments to a rise of 3 percent, up from a 1.8 percent rise the research firm forecast in December. Gartner Group analyst Martin Reynolds told Reuters on Thursday that he expects to update his forecast next week but that his expectation for unit shipments will remain unchanged at 5 percent growth. "We're coming off an awful year in 2001, so it's not hard to be a little bit better," Reynolds said. McCarthy lowered his earnings outlooks on several PC contract manufacturers, including Solectron Corp. and Sanmina-SCI Corp. .