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To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (18912)	3/14/2002 10:41:40 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 34857

Wireless telecom is a trade in transition LIVING IN LIMBO by Kelly Carroll Telephony, Mar 11, 2002 Wireless telecom is a trade in transition. Companies are shedding business divisions or laying off employees. Some wireless players have fallen off the market's radar screen, and others hope to be acquired. While some companies have remained unscathed, they still walk a fine line between having stable or shaky business plans, especially in the eyes of the stock market. The wireless industry's state of flux is in part a result of an unsettling economy, but the now mature industry likely will continue its struggle for balance until more consolidation ensues. We know carriers have great plans for their next-generation networks, and they are not opposed to advancing themselves by way of mergers or acquisitions. The bottom line today is their economies of scale are out of whack and their debt is plentiful, making it difficult for consolidation to happen on a large scale. There are other roadblocks, such as the NextWave debacle. Thanks to the Supreme Court, NextWave's spectrum and carriers' money will be holed up for another three years. Until this is resolved, carriers may choose to ground any acquisition plans. Others may decide to seek opportunities regardless, especially because the spectrum cap will be raised later this year. Carriers may not be clear on spectrum or debt and how either will affect their future plans. Ironically, this uncertainty in wireless will give carriers and vendors the time to explore alternative technologies that just might solve their spectrum issues. Time is on their side, even if clarity continues to elude them.

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (18912)	3/14/2002 11:30:43 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Cax, << Don't kid yourself, GPRS is a total flop >> I think you're the one that is kidding yourself. You can't wish GPRS/EDGE away. GPRS isn't even being marketed yet on any scale, anywhere in the world. Network optimization is still going on, and content, applications, data compression/data optimization and delivery mechanisms and the key enablers (Java, WAP 2, XHTML, MMS) are just now starting to deploy. Mass deployment won't commence till AT LEAST this fall, and realistically maybe a year from now. The GPRS bearer is commercially launched on over 100 networks today, and will be launched on 200 by the end of the year and in excess of 300 by 2004. Micrologic Research has cdmaOne/cdam2000 market share calculated at 12.36% (slightly higher than EMC's calculation) today and they have GSM calculated at 67.3% (almost the same as EMC) through the end of 2001. They forecast that by the end of 2005 that market share will be 17.8%, and they are more optimistic on this than EMC which forecasts it at 17% by 2006. That is a nice increase for cdmaOne ... ... but they also forecast that GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA market share will be 73,4% by the end of 2005 with only about 3% of that total being WCDMA. That means that there are going to be a LOT of GSM GPRS phone out there in 2005. By the end of 2004 very few GSM phones will deliver without it. As a matter of fact the MAJORITY of phones in the marketplace at that time will be GSM GPRS (and GSM GPRS EDGE). - Eric -