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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (18917)	3/14/2002 11:58:09 AM
From: Dexter Lives On	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Too bad you don't apply your own hard logic to qcom's technology! - that's why I prefer Ilmarinen's fuzzy logic -g GPRS will definitely keep qlogic as a niche technology, and logic... Rob

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (18917)	3/14/2002 12:02:33 PM
From: LarsA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Cax, "You think 18kbs is going to sell data service?" - you think silly little awkward sms messages, corny ring tones and cartoonish logos can be popular? No one could have guessed they would - except consumers decided to love them. The "always on", pay per bit, not per minute (leave it in receive-mode all day without cost, get a couple of inexpensive but valuable bits through-out the day e.g. a stock ticker, a java graph, a picture) will be much more important than the bit rate. Build it and they (consumers & developers) will come. JMO Lars

To: Caxton Rhodes who wrote (18917)	3/14/2002 12:37:27 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Caxton, You're enamored with your favorite technology and neglecting the supply side technology push that has to occur to drive wireless data uptake whether 1xRTT or GPRS/EDGE. << You think 18kbs is going to sell data service? While reducing capacity? >> Where are you coming up with 18kbps and please don't refer me to yesterday's Nokia slides on comparative network optimization for average user rates now or in the future on a GPRS network. The biggest thing that 1xRTT will have going for it in the early stages of implementation in the Americas is availability of a wider variety of subscriber equipment, not data transmission speed. After a brief short window where 1xRTT may offer a 2x to 3x advantage (if that is important to the consumer mass) EDGE/1xRTT will offer roughly comparable data rates. I think the window has become so small that it isn't going to matter. In so far as reducing capacity, you might want to check out Bill Clift's comments about capacity on the "3GAmericas" webcast yesterday. Bill's comments on voice capacity increases ("blatantly untrue" referring to Seybold 3/25 editorial comments on this topic - and 4x current GSM and 3x current TDMA) are at 13:00 forward and in the Q&A. 3gamericas.org << ... what is so important about the 1X launch in the U.S. The two things to watch are the effect on replacement rates (which isn't happening so far with GPRS) and whether it attracts new subs. >> The first thing to watch is how it is marketed. The second thing to watch is how it is tariffed. The third thing to watch is what content and applications are available and how that is supported on subscriber equipment. One thing that you neglected to mention is what affect the availability of 1xRTT will have on churn in to 1xRTT carriers, or churn out on GPRS/EDGE carriers - if any. We'll all be watching that one. << (which isn't happening so far with GPRS) >> GPRS isn't even being actively marketed yet. Less here even than across the pond. << 1X has affected replacement phone sales in Korea, and has increased data usage. So far no signs for GPRS. >> 1x in Korea, 1x in Korea, 1x in Korea. 1x in Korea. I've been hearing that one for awhile. Korea was a primed pump. Hats off to the Koreans. Have you yet seen a data capable 1xRTT phone on a retailers shelf? I'm not talking about the phone as modem, I'm talking about a data enabled 1xRTT phone. << Just because all GSM phones become GPRS available doesn't mean it has any affect on sales. >> Ya got that right. Features, Functions, and Capabilities, that provide Advantages and Benefits to the end user drive replacement rates. Bear in mind that replacement rates translate into unit volumes as a function of the size of the user base and right now the cdma user base is < 18% that of the GSM user base ... ... but there is always tomorrow, and the tomorrow after that, and the tomorrow after that, creeping in at their petty pace from day to day ... ... while the faithful chant: Out, out, brief GSM ... - Eric -