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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (48676)	3/15/2002 4:50:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

methinks big disapptmt in most earnings for 18 months earnings may recover in some cases but earnings growth will not that is the consequence of the broken bubble so many investors still regard this recession as no biggee they even say the recession is over govt sources have a vested interest in declaring recession over but it is not yet over we have a vicious earnings recession I doubt it will recover until 2004 in the meantime, business continues so what changes, as business continues, as growth continues in tepid fashion, as expansion resumes slowly ??? cost of doing business increases for both material costs, and employment costs health and benefits havent come down and soon almost all material costs will rise so a further squeeze on profitability we can maintain our optimism and confidence in US capitalism but it ignores the monumental effects of the broken bubble we are witnessing far more similarities to Japan than differences we know the differences we ignore the similarities and one big similarity in my view is the pain felt by banks they are not crippled, but big banks have taken huge blows when interest rates rise, we will see the next bubble get popped USdollar, and real estate consumers will react to the slide in property values upcoming inflation will bring even higher rates still remember just last week Greenspan bemoaned the good old times, stating openly a desire for price inflation in 2001 the Fed raised the money supply by over 20% subtract burned capital and you set the stage for some price inflation within 18 months it gon be big by 2005 / jim