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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36443)	3/15/2002 3:23:18 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68037

[madtrader] Thu Mar 14, 4:02pm PST COMPX I know there seem to be a lot of hesitation out there on techs this week. After the nice run the week prior, the Street seems to be "nervous". Sorry, just a normal profit taking week. The fact this option expiration week (triple witching as well) has experienced little volatility is perhaps the most telling. If you are bearish, you would want to see sharp selling after last week's gains. For the most part, tech names retraced 38% of the gains for their run-up. The shallowest percentage in Fibonacci retracements. I think the Street has also been dumbfounded by the rally off a low VIX reading. Especially after all those technical gurus have been pounding the table that we were supposed to be hammered due to the low VIX reading (of course I have been dismissing the VIX argument for the past few months as faulty). Now that the rally has indeed been in place, and worst of all the pull back has been minimal, you can just feel the performance pressure building under the surface. Particularly with the flood of positive economic news coming out daily and the Fed hinting possible rate hikes by June (don't buy that either, Greenspan isn't called "Easy Al" on the Street for nothing). As the end of the first quarter approaches, window dressing and playing catch up will force the hands of portfolio managers. These are my take on the current situation. However, there is a much more compelling argument based on simple technicals. The correction we have had this week in techs isn't even half of last week's gains. Unless we break last week's lows, which in my mind is highly unlikely, the bullish setup is clearly in place. That being the prior 3 week's candle charts. On weekly charts, one can see the 3 weeks prior to this week, for virtually all major tech names, is a clear morningstar pattern. Which is why I am so bullish, and believe we are in the process of building a base for the next run-up to come out of the right portion of the inverse head'n shoulder formation. Over the next 2-3 months I am envisioning a run of upwards of 20% or more for COMPX and QQQ. none. [madtrader] Thu Mar 14, 3:44pm PST DIGL EXTR CSCO Okay, ORCL is tanking. So what's new? We had the slowest trading day for the year today. So I am going through some charts and finding some good trade setups. The three I found here all showed morningstar pattern, closing above the middle of the Bollinger Band, and better relative strength compared to the Nasdaq Comp. I am not at all impressed with these name's long term picutre. But, they are good enough for a trade to their last week's highs. Or upper Bollinger Band. The most interesting of the three is CSCO. On weekly chart it is forming a very clear inverse head'n shoulder pattern. A bullish setup. Of course, just about all the technicians out there have observed the downward sloping inverse head'n shoulder pattern on COMPX weekly chart as well. Could, of all names CSCO be the one to lift techs above their neckline? I am willing to be in the next two months we will have a chance to find out. CSCO's neckline is around the mid 20s. none.