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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (41001)	3/16/2002 4:59:47 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99280

Tech Sector $ Flows: As you may recall, $ flows into stock funds are a contrarian indicator. Analyzing Tech Sector flows is difficult because I don't have data for each week, and don't know how severe the outflows were just before the mid-Sept low. The outflows do not necessarily threaten the Nasdaq in coming weeks because the outflows should have already been reflected in recent Nasdaq movements, not in movements to come. There's also an implication that the Nasdaq is able to hold its own because IPO activity is so low. High positive cash flows eventually stimulate IPO activity, which eventually soaks up a good part of the new $. The recent stats, in my opinion, suggest that a good intermediate term rally is somewhere out there, as the 1988 outflows portended for the broad market, and the 1994 outflows suggested for the bond market. I'm going to be doing my weekly analysis on Sun, considering all my indicators, and will have a firmer idea on what to what to expect in the next few weeks at that time. I'm still 100% in cash.