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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (41246)	3/16/2002 12:40:30 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Notice what happened the last time commitment of traders took a big drop while small trading had a big rise - John Q Public turned out to be right. I'm not saying that will happen this time, but I'm having a hard time finding any predictive value in that chart, no matter how hard I squint.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (41246)	3/16/2002 8:05:53 AM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa, interesting chart of the SP500 and COT. If the Sp500 breaks down much more, one would think that it is signalling a return to the trendline from the early '90s, which would be a long way down. The COT for the nasdaq and sp400 and russell 2000 are not nearly as negative as the SP500. Why would the professionals focus so much on the SP500 vs these other indexes? This current rally does not seem to have much enthusiasm, but if one looks at a one year chart of the naz, it looks a little bit like the current rally is forming the left shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders. Or, alternatively, perhaps the rounded top from the October rally is really a complex head and shoulders, and this current rally is a 'reaction' to the decline from this head and shoulders, signalling a significant decline coming soon? I don't know, but we will probably find out before too long. Robin