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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41252)	3/16/2002 10:48:24 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Assets gushing back to stock funds By Craig Tolliver CBS.MarketWatch.com March 14, 2002 SANTA ROSA, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- If investors are pleased with the market rally of the past couple of weeks then fund companies must be ecstatic as assets flowing to stock mutual funds in March are looking to be roughly 20 times that of last month. Over the five days ended Wednesday, investors funneled $7.6 billion to stock mutual funds for a monthly pace of nearly $27 billion -- a far cry from the tiny $1.5 billion pulled in last month, according to very preliminary estimates from flow analyst Trim Tabs. "I'm sure the fund companies are rejoicing," observed director of research Carl Wittnebert. "The recent rally has brought in a lot of money. Compared to '01 it's a real windfall." Should the trend continue, first-quarter flows to stock mutual funds will approach $47 billion, thanks in part to a strong January. Over the same three-month period last year, total inflows to equity funds added up to just $1.2 billion, according to industry trade group Investor Company Institute. Last year, outflows in March totaled nearly $21 billion, the second highest monthly outflow on record. Later that year, a new record was set when investors withdrew almost $30 billion in September. Mutual funds investing primarily in U.S. stocks attracted $7.1 billion in the latest week, compared to inflows of $3.7 billion the week before, according to Trim Tabs. International equity funds had inflows of $500 million, vs. outflows of $400 million the prior week. The Santa Rosa, Calif.-based mutual fund analyst tracks the daily flows of ninety fund families, representing about 15 percent of all equity fund assets, to arrive at its weekly estimates. _________________ Craig Tolliver is the mutual funds editor for CBS.MarketWatch.com in Los Angeles.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41252)	3/16/2002 11:45:30 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 99280

Most would not consider the current long term rate to be an inhibitor to the economy. Sure a case can be made that the real interest rate is high when compared to inflation but whose inflation are we comparing it with? The CPI...heck that doesn't represent my inflation picture. The cost of college, medicine and nursing homes, for instance, continues to grow at a robust 5%. Has the long rate been a real inhibitor to the economy? I don't think so. The housing market has been strong and refinancing is perhaps unparalleled in our lifetime. To suggest Greenspan raise rates to give himself room later makes no sense to me. You have clearly pointed out in the past that you expect him to raise rates and push the economy into a tailspin. This would ostensibly create the scenario for then dropping rates again. Huh? Anyway, we tried that back in 1930-31 and it didn't work any better back then than it would today. In my opinion the only inducement for raising short term rates that makes sense is the same one that promulgated the last rate increase in early 2000. When long bond investors sniff inflation and begin demanding a premium on their instruments. In one respect I believe that Gross is right. Alan isn't going to bite on Gross' hook and induce a competition in the market place for the investment dollar. In any event, bringing the long bond down much would have an unsettling effect on the retired sector. They have found it necessary to extend their savings dollar well beyond the time horizon they are generally comfortable with which creates a problem in its own right. Where exactly do they go if AG successfully negotiates the long bond down to three percent? Perhaps into equity just in time for the next market debacle... No more contrived inverted yield curves would be just fine with me. They have kick started every severe market plunge I can remember...and I remember too many. We have enough Fed Chairm(e)n as it is...No help from the peanut gallery, please!<g>

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41252)	3/17/2002 12:29:57 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev looking at the VIX and noting it has only clearly failed once in the last 5 years, i think it should be noted the failure preceded the massive blow-off bull-bubble mania run from end Novembeer 1999 to the March High of 1552 for SPX. If in fact, and it is quite possible, the Street suckers that sideline money in right now. The word 'massacre' in term of 'June Massacre' will prove to be quite accurate. i am now torn. In December 1999 i threw in the towel and went long 100% as a concession that 'Clowns had taken control'. Right now i am scratching my head and thinking 'can they really do this, can they really go WACKO just two years out?' Zeev, it is looking like they can--Momentum in SPX hit 229 in March 2000, it is now 77 and rising.Max