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To: Simba who wrote (155951)	3/16/2002 1:28:36 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I'd think that the deflation scenario Reaper is painting will involve falling housing prices. People with loads on debts have already mortgaged to the highest LTV. Basically this is what has been going on in Japan. Not a pretty picture, but it looks like a very logical consequence of a greatest asset bubble. I'm not sure if US will manage to avoid it. BWDIK

To: Simba who wrote (155951)	3/17/2002 5:06:53 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Simba -- long rates fall to a 3-handle 'cause money supply collapses and nobody can take on more credit. Rates are set by supply and demand -- no demand for credit (due to in-ability to service) means collapsing rates and collapsing money supply. So no re-financing and house prices crater. This is why I think LIQUIDITY is paramount; those who have CASH at the bottom will be able to scoop up some excellent bargains across most asset markets, especially stocks and real estate. This is also why I depart from other participants in this thread and do not own gold. Cheers