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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (41289)	3/16/2002 4:21:18 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

I have a high probability of a big move this week. Up past 2000. The target I have is 2050-2068 max. If that pans out, the scenario then unfolds with two poor weeks, bring us back down to 1880-1920, and then one final thrust after that to 2130, or failing at 2100. I no longer have 2250. The nas then goes into the toilet and it would probably be smart to be out altogether. We could be all over the map and I don't see any good opportunities until the nas gets crushed back to the near the recent lows, or lower. I don't have a read on that really. The downtrend will have to be established first. All I can say is that this is what my favored signals suggest, and I can clearly see that most of the ta suggests we are already overbought. The way I will personally play this is too try not to get to cute within the suggested general trend, but play the thrust up, cut back until we are back around here, and then play the final thrust up, and then get out. IF the scenario isn't playing out I will take appropriate protective measures.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (41289)	3/16/2002 4:37:39 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 99280

deleted

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (41289)	3/16/2002 4:38:30 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 99280

Justa W.: Right idea, wrong timing. I think there will be fewer earnings warnings than everyone expects and the ones that come will be from the telecommunications sector, which everyone has already given up for dead this year -- no surprise, nor will this affect the NASDAQ. I also believe that earnings reports in April will show surprising strength and market will resume rally into the first half of April. However, after mid-April, when the word "valuation" rears its ugly head, the NASDAQ will begin its usual summer swoon. Add in the threat of (and probable) interest rate hikes in mid to late summer, rising energy prices, a bit of inflation, and the realization that the recovery cannot justify outrageous valuations in the tech sector, and this will provide a nice shorting opportunity. Unlike Zev, I think the large picture is that this is an early bull market; I do NOT see us retesting 1400 on the NASDAQ. My bet is that it will find support in the low 1600's, the April 2001 low.