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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mao II who wrote (41364)	3/17/2002 8:41:07 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Mao II As posted here some time ago, Hal agrees that VIX is not very good indicator and Hal no longer even keeps track of VIX. Larry Dudash

To: Mao II who wrote (41364)	3/17/2002 12:07:40 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

the VIX is falling in line with the HV for the OEX as the OEX has been moving sideways for two weeks. the IV is actually below the HV so there is complacency.

To: Mao II who wrote (41364)	3/17/2002 12:19:11 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Now I love that article. So much complacency right there to warm a bear's heart. I guess they missed the distinction between what happens to the VIX and stock prices in a bull market versus a bear market and decided to mix their findings in one big timeframe that incorporated one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Good news for the bears. Here is the key sentence: "Hopefully, this helps debunk the Wall Street myth that low volatility always precedes falling prices. Sometimes it does (especially in the last two years, where huge moves occurred ), but most often it does not." So, what kind of market have we been in the past two years? Bear market. So it works well in a bear market (past two years) but not so well in a bull market. And so it all comes back to the issue of whether we are in a bull market or a bear market. If you believe it is a bear market, this article is exactly what you want to see. Perfect.