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Strategies & Market Trends : Trade/Invest with Options Jerry a Point & Figure Chartist -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (5367)	3/17/2002 8:40:44 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 5893

ALERT..MY NEWSLETTER IS OUT SINCE 6-7.00 PM EST..IF YOU HAVE NOT GOTTEN IT LET ME KNOW ASAP... HERE'S MY LAST SUNDAYS LETTER FWIW...BEST OF LUCK.. BTW..I WILL NOT BE POSTING ANY LIVE INTRADAY TRADES HERE ANYMORE..AS I CAN NOT BABY SIT THEM DURING THE DAY..IT'S MY FAULT FOR EVEN DOING IT...SO IT'S DONE FOR NOW...ALL MY TRADING WILL BE LIVE AND IN THE REAL TIME ROOM... EITHER YOUR THERE OR YOUR NOT... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED MARCH 10TH 2002 "ALL CYLINDERS ON GO!!!!!" Hello everyone, hope all is well with you and yours... Gosh what a couple of weeks huh?..Buyers came RAGING out of the woodwork and dove into the abyss with reckless abandon, me included<G>...You know what? It takes a very long time to truly understand these markets..not just from a technical point of view, but from a psychological one too...Sentiment is such a BIG mover of the markets, right or wrong they play a hugh roll in market direction...And when it sets in, nothing or noone will stop it moving in either direction... Well over the years i have come to SEE that event..in fact a lot of you that have been with me over the years are beginning to SEE it too..What was it that ignited this market..I'll tell ya<g>...Crazy as it seems it was that bad Consumer Confidence Number a couple of Fridays ago...I guess the thinking was this, heck it a lagging indicator, the economy is showing solid signs of life here, so the hell with that trailing info, lets go long and strong on the BET it's better NEXT month...and then as we were talking about this in the real time room, about mid day after the markets sold off on that news early...the market began to "RALLY ON BAD NEWS"...hello?..that's the change, that's the KEY..it works both ways folks..remember that..we are in a two way market...I called that rally to get long and we talked about it the rest of the afternoon... So what happened..we held 1074 for the umpteenth time on the SPX..I call that monster support..heck if we ever break that? run for the hills<VBG>...and we rally up to near 100 points straight up toward 1175...whew, what a run up..and guess what lead the market up? yeah you got it..THE SEMIS what else?..If for nothing I have said this ad infinitum the semis are such an important sector, as they are dearly loved by the street...So we get big time moves in all of our semis esp.the big cap techs I always talk about, and the SMH holds that near cliff dive at 39 and roars up to touch 50...one hell of a run up...Oh and btw, for you techies..it looks like a 100 point move in the SOX equates to about 10 points in the SMH...that's cool...watch it... I don't think I've seen a better "short Term" opportunity for the long side in a very LONG<g> time...Most important was the last weeks reversal back up for the Bullish Percent of the OTC..Now that's BIG time news here everyone...It means the NAZ stocks are going higher here..anything that's extended should be bought on pullbacks..They sort of knocked the semis in Barrons over the weekend so maybe we'll get that slide back toward a buying area, then just go long..I love it when people are on the wrong side of a trade...Of course we could just go straight up too<g>.. Speaking of bullish percents..get this everyone...THE SEMIS---COMPUTERS--SOFTWARE--ELECTRONICS---BIO TECHS--INTERNET--TELEPHONE, all reversed back up here..the BIOs from very low levels too and the TELE's too...you need to check out the BBH again..Last week i told you all to leg into or just use this index to play this sector..you can always use some selected stocks as well...many of the names we like are already in the BBH too<g>...The BBH broke a big time area of hard/heavy R at 124 and has an upside target of about 140 using the Horizontal Count...it does trade options as does the SMH as do all the ETF's the exchange traded funds... So all in all we have those oversold sectors rolling up now with the Main OTC coach moving in the same direction...this is quite bullish for the near term..I like the posture of the market going into earnings season and warnings season too..Forward guidance should be better for next Q...So hope fully we have seen the bottom for now...Also please ignore the current thinking of those people parading on CNBC with the notion the FED is going to raise rates soon..heck we haven't even gotten our underpinnings set yet nationally, and those jobs created last week, may only be a blip here..i continue to see layoffs everywhere...so the FED is NOT going to stop this current recovery..I do think interest rates will be a lot higher later this year..and if you put off refinancing, i would IMMEDIATELY do it right NOW!!! We have break outs of the TNX the yields for the 10 year, and breakdown's in the bond futures and the DJBB on P&F, all in all very nasty looking for long bond holders...GOLD looks dead too, i warned everyone about gold..forget it..it's a waste of time to try to trade it...The XAU just reversed back down 3 boxes and is going lower..as is the BP of the Precious Metals sector...i would avoid this area for now... So where do we go from here?..well as far as i can tell we're going higher..and the time frame is probably over the next 1-2-3 months...with some backing and filling till we hit the top on the BP's for the OTC again and the NYSE...at those junctures I'll have us out of our longs and getting us ready for shorts, they will surely come in to play on down the road...Now remember this...The markets are always moving very fast in either direction..so be alert to any of my alerts..we could top out a lot sooner than later..sure would not surprise me...One reason is the OTC BP never got below 30% and the near term area of R is at 60 the double top...I'll be prudently on alert for all of this for our group..rest easily my money is at stake too...<VBG>... OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXS DJIA/DOW---CURRENTLY AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...AND A BIT EXTENDED...THIS CURRENT CHART PATTERN IS A BUY ON PULLBACK TYPE CHART I LIKE..SO DO JUST THAT USING THE DJX OPTIONS OR THE DIAS...I WOULD THINK 10,300 TO 10, 200 WOULD BE A NORMAL PULLBACK HERE TO BUY...NEXT STOP IS THE TOP OF THIS CHART AT 11,300...WOW!... NAZ/COMPX---IT'S RIGHT UP AGAINST THE BRL LINE..THAT'S THE DOWNTRENDLINE CALLED THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE ON POINT & FIGURE LANGUAGE...IT'S VERY TOUGH RESISTANCE AREAS ON ANY CHART..HOWEVER WHAT WITH THE OTCBP REVERSING UP HERE..YOU CAN AND SHOULD BUY ALL PULLBACKS IN THIS INDEX OR ANY OF YOUR FAVORITE STOCKS...ON THE 20 POINT PER BOX CHART I HAVE 1940 AS THE R AREA...1960 A SOLID BREAKOUT WITH CLEAR SAILING UP TO MY 1ST TARGET OF 2100...1850/60 WOULD BE A NORMAL PULLBACK... NDX---SAME AS ABOVE BUT WITH A BIT MORE VIGOR TO IT NOW...IT HAS HEAVY R AT 1650, EVENTUALLY 1750 WOULD BIG A HUGH BREAKOUT FOR THIS INDEX...LOOKING AT THE 20 POINT CHART IT BROKE THE BRL LINE AT 1560 NEEDS A SHORT TERM PB(PULLBACK) TO ABOUT 1500 OR SO,.. AND AS A PATTERN TRADER THE CURRENT "LOOK" OF THIS CHART HAS A PERFECT SYMMETRICAL ROUND TRIP FROM THE LOWS TO THE HIGHS AND BACK DOWN AGAIN..TAKE A LOOK... SOX---THIS INDEX THE POWER PLAYER FOR SURE..IT HOLDS 500 3-4 TIMES, BUYERS COME IN HARD THIS LAST TIME AND EXPLODE IT STRAIGHT UP AND THRU THE CURRENT TRADING RANGE NUMBER AT 600 BY PRINTING 620 THE BREAKOUT DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL...NOW I COULD CARE LESS WHAT THOSE "WIZARDS OF FALL STREET" SAY, WE BUY EVERY PULLBACK ON THE SEMIS..I MIGHT SUGGEST THAT WHEN THE MARKETS RALLIED UP OFF THE SEPT LOWS, AS THIS SECTOR RAN UP TOO, LOOK AT THOSE STOCKS THAT DID "NOT" PARTICIPATE...IF THERE NOT DOING IT NOW..FORGET THEM..PASS..THERE DEAD MONEY..PLAY THE STOCKS THAT HAVE.."BUYERS" COMPRENDE'????..WE SHOULD SEE 700 QUICKLY WITH GOOD SUPPORT AT 590ISH...I DO NOT WANT TO SCARE ANYONE WITH PRICE OBJECTIVES RIGHT HERE<G> SMH---THIS IS THE WAY TO TRADE THE SOX AND SEMIS FOLKS..IT'S EASY AND RELIABLE..RIGHT NOW IT'S UP AGAINST HEAVY R AT 50..UP FROM 40 THE BIG SUPPORT AREA...REMEMBER 39? I WARNED IF THAT BROKE WE ARE DEAD MEAT?..WE'LL IT DID NOT BREAK AND AS THE SOX RAN SO DID THE SMH A FULL 10 POINTS...THERE'S A BEAUTIFUL INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER ON THE "WEEKLY" CHART TOO...SO IF WE GET 45/46 AREA THAT'S A SOLID BUY IN TARGET, LOOKS LIKE THE PRICE OBJECTIVE(PO) IS 67..NICE.. SPX---RIGHT AT THE TRIPLE TOP NEAR HEAVY R 1175...1180 THE BIG TIME BREAKOUT...1220 WOULD BE MY FIRST TARGET..ON THE PULLBACK 1140 WOULD BE GREAT TO GET LONG...THIS INDEX IS NOW ABOVE THE BRL LINE TOO..NOW IF YOU LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART OF THE SPX..IT'S BROKEN THE DOWNTRENDLINE SINCE DEC 200..VERY VERY POSITIVE... VXN---THIS INDEX IS A SHORT ALL RALLY INDEX..PERIOD..I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS ALL THE WAY DOWN...40 IS THE NEXT SELL SIGNAL IT WOULD COMPLETE A BEARISH CATAPULT..BET ON IT<G> VIX---THIS INDEX IS READY TO CRACK AT 21..A BIG BREAKDOWN THERE..SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE CHART AS WELL... OK WE'LL LOOK AT OUR FAVORITE STOCKS TO TRADE..I'LL SEND OUT THE LEAPS I LIKE UNDER SEPARATE LETTER. AMAT---SURE BROKE OUT OF THAT RISING WEDGE HUH<G>?..IT BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP AT 49 AND TOUCHED 54 ON FRIDAY..IT'S DUE FOR A PULLBACK..ALL TRIPLE TOPS PULLBACK...ALL...NORMAL 3 BOX REVERSAL IS 51...54 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL) FOR YOU DAYTRADERS, 52 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER)... AFFX---A NICE BIO THATS BUILT A BASE HERE AT 22..HELD THAT DOUBLE BOTTOM...AND IS READY TO POP HERE ALONG WITH THE TURN UP OF THE BIO BP...27 1/2 THE BTL..WITH 28 THE BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...TARGET 32...THE BRL LINE OVERHEAD...25 THE SST... BRCM---BROKE OUT AND UP FROM A DESCENDING WEDGE OR CHANNEL...WITH A VENGEANCE...SEEMS OVERBOUGHT HERE THO...45 1/2 THE BTL...42 3/4 THE SST...INCREDIBLE WEEKLY CHART...BEAUTIFUL 3 STICK PATTERN... BRCD---JUST GAVE A LOW POLE WARNING LAST WEEK...IT SHOULD PULLBACK TO SET UP THE NEXT BEST RUN HERE...OH FOR YOU NEWER PEOPLE, A LOW POLE WARNING IS WHEN A STOCK IS VERY OVERSOLD AND RALLIES BACK UP NICELY TO BEGIN THE REPAIR PHASE OF THE CHART...SO IN ESSENCE WARNING THE SHORTS...30 3/4 THE BTL---28 1/4 THE SST... QLGC---SOME OF THESE WEEKLY CHARTS REALLY LOOK GREAT...BTW FWIW..I AM TALKING ABOUT CANDLESTICK CHARTS FOLKS TOO..I USE BOTH P&F AND CANDLESTICKS..SO CHECK THE WEEKLY AND DAILY CANDLE STICK CHARTS ALWAYS AS WELL...IT'S NOW TRADING ABOVE THE BRL LINE..BUT IT'S RS(RELATIVE STRENGTH) NEEDS SOME MORE WORK...52 1/2 THE BTL...50 THE SST... NEWP---OOOH BOY I LIKE THIS CHART.....REALLY TRYING TO SET UP FOR A BIG PUSH UP HERE...26 3/4 THE BTL...WITH 27 RIGHT NEAR BY AT THE SPREAD TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT...STAY LONG THERE..WE COULD GET A PULLBACK FIRST THO..WILL WATCH THIS ONE...24 1/2 THE SST...22 SOLID SUPPORT.. MANU---THIS IS ONE OF OUR $20 BUCK STOCKS WE LIKE...BOTH THE DAILY AND WEEKLY CANDLE CHARTS ARE REALLY STARTING TO LOOK GOOD...THESE ARE FUN TO TRADE TOO...20 1/2 THE BTL AND A SOLID BREAKOUT AREA THERE...THERE'S A 52 WEEK HIGH AT 22..SO IT COULD PULLBACK THERE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD RUN MUCH HIGHER ON DOWN THE ROAD...IT'S IN THE SOFTWARE SECTOR TOO...18 1/4 THE SST... EBAY---RIGHT UP TO THE BRL HERE AND AT THE DOUBLE TOP...SO HEAVY R THERE..I SHORTED IT AT 59 3/4 IN THE ROOM ON FRIDAY..THINKING WE GET SOME TYPE OF SHORT TERM PULLBACK IN THE MARKETS AND EBAY..WELL AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT..BARRON'S BASHED IT OVER THE WEEKEND...LOL..DUMB LUCK FOLKS...<VBG>...59 1/4 THE SST..DOUBT YOU'LL SEE THAT?...61 1/2 THE BTL..WONDER IF THEY IGNORE BARRONS HAHAHAHAHAHAHA... NTAP--ANOTHER 20 DOLLAR BABY...THIS LITTLE TRADER NOT ONLY BROKE THRU THE BRL LINE WITH VIM AND VIGOR, IT BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP TO BOOT...AND IT BROKE OUT OF A NICE BULLISH TRIANGLE TOO..WOW...WE NEED TO OWN THIS ONE EVERYONE...IT'S SHOWING DEMAND IS IN CONTROL...22 1/4 THE BTL..THIS STOCK WILL PULLBACK IF THE MARKET DOES...20 IS THE SST...WITH A PULLBACK TO 19--19 1/2 MY BUY IN AREA..MAYBE WE USE THE MAY/JUNE CALLS IN THE MONIES AT THE 17 1/2 STRIKE..AND TAKE HOME ALL THE MONEY HONEY<VBG>...THE JUNE 17 1/2 CALLS ARE THE NUL-FW'S THEY COST ABOUT 5 1/2--6.00 BUCKS..BUT DURING THIS WEEK WE COULD GRAB THEM MUCH CHEAPER..GOT THAT TROOPS?...HEADSUP HERE!... CYMI--CONTINUES TO AMAZE ME..BREAKING TRIPLE TOP AFTER TRIPLE TOP...NO SELLERS THERE..JUST SOME PROFIT TAKING LAST WEEK..NOW LET'S SEE WHERE THE PULLBACK WANTS TO GO...44 THE SST..42 WOULD BE MY TARGET TO BUY IN THERE...46 THE BTL...47 THE TOP OF THE CHART RIGHT NOW.. EMLX---THINKING IT SEEMS WEAK TO ME..IT TRIED TO MOVE HIGHER LAST WEEK BUT COULD NOT GATHER ENOUGH STEAM...RALLIED UP ABOVE 46 THEN PULLED BACK QUICKLY..I WAS TALKING ABOUT IT IN THE ROOM...2 INDECISIVE STICKS ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...35 THE BTL...AND IT MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD...33 1/.2 A GOOD SST THERE...TEST 31 FAST... VRSN---FINALLY GAVE A BUY SIGNAL ON P&F..A BOTTOM FISHER FOR SURE..BUT THE SECTOR REVERSED UP HERE...THE SOFTWARE GROUP BP...32 3/4 THE BTL---30 1/4 THE SST... RFMD---THIS STOCK CHART LOOKS A LOT LIKE NTAPS..BROKE OUT OF THE BRL NICELY...BROKE A TRIPLE TOP TOO...19--19 1/2 A GOOD PULLBACK AREA TO BUY SOME CALLS OR THE STOCK...20 1/2 THE SST...22 3/4 THE BTL...IT HAS A VERY NICE PO FOR THE LONGER TERM MOVE...I'LL BUY THIS HOPE FULLY THIS WEEK..CHECK OUT THE OPTIONS..17 1/2'S EVERYONE OF MAY... SEBL--HELD THE SOLID DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) AT 28 THIS RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE..THIS LINE FOLKS IS THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE...THE OPPOSITE OF THE BRL LINE..IT'S THE UPTRENDLINE...USUALLY GOOD SUPPORT THERE...37 1/2 THE BTL...34 3/4 THE SST..LOOKING FOR A PULLBACK MAYBE HERE THIS WEEK...VERY NICE STOCK TO OWN LONG AFTER ANY PULLBACK... ISSX---BASE BUILDING FOR WHAT I THINK IS GOING TO BE ONE HECK OF A BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE...IT HAS HEAVY R OVERHEAD AT 29 WHICH IS NOW SET UP AS A QUADRUPLE TOP POTENTIAL BREAKOUT AT 30..I TOLD EVERYONE TO SET ALERTS...ON THE POSSIBLE PULLBACK THIS WEEK..WE COULD BUY THE DIP WITH A STOP AROUND 24ISH..I'LL BE WATCHING..AND THEN ADD MORE ON THE BREAKOUT...OPTIONS MAY BE GREAT TOO...HECK LET'S JUST WAIT FOR 30 AS THE BTL..WE'RE ALMOST AT 29 AT THE CLOSE...27 1/2 THE SST...WATCH 25 AS SUPPORT.. IMCL---WELL IT'S SURE TRYING TO BEGIN A NEW CAREER HERE<G>...I'M GOING TO TAKE THIS ONE LONG OFF THIS NEXT PULLBACK BOTH THE STOCK AND 2004 LEAPS...I ALREADY OWN THE jAN 2003'S...SLIGHTLY UNDER WATER..HE HE HE...IT MUST HOLD 24..SO 23 WOULD BE YOUR STOP IF YOU CHOOSE TO PLAY THIS ONE...AGGRESSIVE TRADERS ONLY...YOU COULD LOSE YOUR WHOLE WAD ON THIS WILD BRONCO 27 1/2 THE BTL...WITH ANY TAKE OUT OF 31 YOU STAY LONG...25 1/2 THE SST... MYGN---A BOTTOM FISH PLAY HERE FOLKS..WITH THE UP TURN IN THE BP WE COULD TRY THIS STOCK..MANY CHARTS ARE A LOT BETTER THO...SO CAUTION HERE...37 3/4 THE BTL...39 KEEPS YOU IN THIS TRADE LONG..TARGET 44...35 1/4 THE SST... IDPH---WE HAVE SHORTED THIS FOR MONTHS NOW WE'VE BEEN LONG THIS 4-5 TIMES..NICE DAYTRADER...IN A GOOD LOOKING STOCK CHART...68 3/4 THE BTL...ANY BREAKOUT ABOVE 72 IS VERY BULLISH LONGER TERM...THERE IS SOME CONGESTION OVERHEAD HERE UP AND THRU 73...66 3/4 THE SST... GENZ---I OWN THE JAN LEAPS SO I'M GOING TO BUY SOME JAN 2004'S...TO AVERAGE IN HERE..THIS WEEK ON THE PULLBACK THE 45'S OR 50'S..SEEMS THEIR REPORT LOOKED GOOD TO THE STREET...47 1/4, THE BTL---45 1/4 THE SST... MLNM---BROKE OUT OF A NICE TRIANGLE LAST WEEK...AND THE CHART LOOKS FINE HERE FOR MORE UPSIDE...24 1/2 THE BTL---22 1/2 THE SST...IT SHOULD PULLBACK HERE... OK THATS IT FOR NOW..UNDER SEPARATE E-MAIL I SEND OUT THE NEXT 2 LEAPS FOR JAN 2004... HOPE YOU'VE HAD AS GOOD A 2-3 WEEK SPAN AS I HAVE..TRY TO DROP BY THE ROOM WHEN YOU HAVE A CHANCE..I AM E-MAILING TOM DORSEY TO SEE IF HE'S AVAILABLE TO COME INTO THE ROOM DURING TRADING HOURS...THIS WEEK..WILL LET EVERYONE KNOW VIA E-MAIL.. HAVE A NICE TRADING WEEK ALL...REMEMBER IT'S TRIPLE WITCHING AND USUALLY WILD AND WHOOLY\.. WARMEST REGARDS JERRY Jerry Olson Master Class Trader jerry.olson@verizon.net www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com