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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41397)	3/17/2002 1:05:38 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<< My only problem is the next two weeks, we could have a very sharp decline >. Mama Mia, i hope so, then i am in 100% with guns blazing :) max

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41397)	3/17/2002 1:46:17 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 99280

online.wsj.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41397)	3/17/2002 4:52:56 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

From Barrons. This is only a portion of it and my apologies but I couldn't link it properly: March 18th, 2002 The Perfect Recovery Nancy Lazar says the economy is far stronger than most people think By Sandra Ward In the summer and fall of 2000, when everyone else fretted about inflation and interest-rate hikes, economists at the International Strategy and Investment Group sensed a shift in the wind and took a different tack. The firm warned clients of a coming slowdown in corporate profits and a downturn in the global economy that would be more severe and longer lasting than anyone then imagined. They called it the Perfect Storm, and they were right. This past autumn, with the U.S. reeling from terrorist attacks and outlooks for global economies at their grimmest, Ed Hyman and Nancy Lazar again saw the world differently. The worst was over, they said. The economy was likely to touch bottom in the fourth quarter and a recovery was getting under way. U.S. gross domestic product was going to be stronger than expected, their research showed. At the time, they forecast GDP growth of 3.5%-4% for 2002. The surge in the stock market, in October and November was a "classic end-of-recession" rally. They forecast the Perfect Recovery. They appear to have been right again. Lazar blithely dismisses fears of a "double-dip" recession occurring in the second half, relying on history as a guide: There's never been a double-dip in the first year of a recovery. There's never been a down quarter in the first year of a recovery based on 1954, 1958, 1961, 1971, 1975, 1983 and 1991.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (41397)	3/17/2002 9:03:44 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

The way I see things right now is that the indicators are not going to be as useful right now as many have topped and reversed. The best way to play right now is to identify "the box" and play according to the support and resistance. Right now we can say the box from the last couple of days is 1848-1880. A rise above 1880 means we're going higher, possibly to re-test 1947 or 1960. A drop below 1848 means we're going to either 1841, 1830, 1821, or 1793. If you buy a breach of 1880 or short a breach of 1848 with appropriate stops, I think some of the uncertainty can be mitigated early on this week.