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To: JRI who wrote (34362)	3/18/2002 8:09:13 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Begins 10:05 Intraday Low SPX 1150 Close SPX 1159 Cycle Low SPX 1050 April 15

To: JRI who wrote (34362)	3/18/2002 9:04:48 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI,"when does this near-term start decline start?" Since Unbelievable gave it a stab I thought I would, too. Assuming that "near-term" means the next 2-5 days (the less vague the better <g>) My first WAG would be around 1:00 Friday. This assumes we rally out of the FOMC, then the rally will have time to cool off, with decline then beginning (like January), and my second WAG would be 2:15 Tuesday if we puke right out of the FOMC. If "near-term" means the next 2-15 days, then I would think on the COMP daily charts (counting from the February low)that wave 5 off the low would continue past last Monday's high to about 2000-2050. (that would be at the upper line of the triangle on the weekly charts from the May 2001 high to the January high) That would take us to the end of the month or close to it and the "seasonality indicator" would be then out of play. Speaking of the "seasonality indicator," for tech I've seen some people use the October-March six month period and then I've seen others use the old adage "sell in May and stay away" giving the indicator another 4-8 weeks. What is your understanding of this indicator?