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To: Les H who wrote (1626)	3/18/2002 7:34:21 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29596

What to expect now. March 18, 2002 A short-term to intermediate term top may be approaching on the S&P. We concluded that there is a good possibility the SPX may try to test the January 7 high near the 1177 and create a bearish "Upthrust" and this still may be the case. Today the SPX came within 4 S&P points of reaching the 1177 level. This potential bearish "Upthrust" would trigger a sell signal. The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 6.07 and is a bullish reading and implies this bounce may continue to the 1177 level. The VIX did hit a new yearly low today but has been staying near the "Mean average" and has not generated a signal for reversal yet. For the moment, we would like to see the 1177 area on the SPX hit and then reversal lower to generated a sell signal. Still flat for the moment. We did change to "Long term neutral" on today's close. The VIXN (Nasdaq VIX) today hit a new 12-month low. This condition in itself is not a trigger for a sell signal but it is a potential bearish development. The trigger for a sell signal on the VIXN is a reversal back up. This condition may appear in the next day or so. We were concluding the NDX may rally back to fill the gap area near the 1540 area and that still may happen. There is a very good possibility the NDX did see it's high on March 11 at the 1570 level and this rally back will come short of breaking that high. The "Tick Indicator" for the moment is still trending up and implies the short-term trend is up. When the "Tick Indicator" rolls over to the downside, then that will be the time to look to short. We are bearish here and 1540 area my well be the target price for the next sell signal. Flat for the moment. The XAU took off to the upside and broke the downtrend channel it was in from the February 8 high. This could be the start of the next rally. However, we did check several gold stocks to see if the volume come in on this rally and some of the gold stocks had volume and some did not. We are not sure if the next big move is now or that these gold stocks pull back into the down channel and consolidate further. This is just a short-term dilemma. The monthly charts imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms and therefore, pull back or not the bigger picture is very bullish. We like ASA near 23 and on the recent pull back it did hit 23.10. We like HL near the current level 1.40 area. We like Drooy near 2.05 to 2.15 and so far 2.21 is the lowest seen for the last several weeks. We like AEM near 11 to 10.50 and the recent low was 11.25. marketweb.com